Kyiv force ‘probes for its Normandy breakthrough’

A push to crack heavily fortified Russian lines in the Zaporizhzhia region has been likened to the D-Day landings in WWII.

Ukrainian servicemen operate an M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region.

A Ukrainian push to break through heavily fortified Russian lines in the southeast of the country is likely to be the “opening salvo” in a larger battle that has drawn comparisons to the Normandy landings.

Fierce battles are under way in the Zaporizhzhia region, involving thousands of western-trained and equipped Ukrainian reinforcements, in what appears to be the most significant phase so far of Kyiv’s counteroffensive. Despite having to overcome minefields, bunkers, and tank traps, as well as blistering artillery and airstrikes, Ukrainian brigades have made some progress south of the town of Orikhiv, according to analysts and pro-war military bloggers in Moscow.

President Putin said “hostilities have intensified significantly” but “heroic” Russian forces had held their lines while destroying dozens of Ukrainian tanks. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said an “intense battle” was taking place.

Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region, said Ukraine’s advancing troops were equipped with about 100 armoured vehicles, including German-made Leopard tanks and American-made Bradley fighting vehicles. American-supplied cluster weapons were believed to be playing a role in clearing Russian minefields and defensive positions. President Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s army had “a very good day at the front”, but did not provide details.

British commandos on the run to the Normandy beach on D-Day.

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former head of the UK’s joint command, said Ukraine had committed a brigade comprising about 3,000-5,000 troops and 40-80 vehicles to its attempt to penetrate Russian defences. Ukraine had not yet deployed the bulk of its western tanks and armoured vehicles to the fight. Barrons said the fighting around Orikhiv was “only an opening salvo” that had not resulted in significant success. “But what it did betray was how stretched the Russian forces are. The Ukrainians are trying to work out where they can strike against Russian forces that are eroded and therefore a bit brittle.”

Kyiv’s immediate aim is the Russian-held town of Tokmak, about 20 miles south of Orikhiv. If Ukraine can recapture Tokmak, it will seek to move on to Melitopol, a coastal city another 30 miles away that is known as the “gateway to Crimea”. Retaking Melitopol and the surrounding areas could allow Ukraine to cut off Russia’s overland access to Crimea, which it has occupied since 2014. “This is the big test,” a senior US official told The New York Times.

The counteroffensive has been slowed by wet weather, but a second wave of tanks and armoured vehicles could break through Russian lines, western officials believe. “The combination of wet and heat in uncultivated areas has led to significant levels of undergrowth and bush, which has aided the defenders,” one official said. “There’s a lot being put on the second echelon.”

Ukraine’s western-trained brigades are fresh to the battle and hope to overcome Russian troops weary and weakened from months of combat. “Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector,” said the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank.

A woman holds her child as they arrive from the Russian-held town of Berdyansk at a humanitarian relief centre in Zaporizhzhia.

Barrons compared Russian attempts to thwart Ukraine’s advance to the allied landing in northern France in the Second World War. He said Russia had built “textbook” defences of trenches, minefields and obstacles and that Ukrainian success would depend on the speed with which Russian commanders could deploy their reserves, including some of their best armoured troops, to plug gaps along the vast front line. “In the days after D-Day, the Germans were too slow to get their Panzers in the right places because they were too far away. If those tanks had turned up on the day, the Allies would never have got off the beach,” he said.

Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not aim for “a single decisive breakthrough” to reclaim land. “The Ukrainians tried an armoured thrust but the losses were such that they decided to pause and reset. The fighting is now attritional and aims to create weak points in the defences,” he said.

“The Ukrainians are simultaneously attacking all along the front - Bakhmut, Orikhiv, Vuhledar - to wear down the Russian reserves so they can no longer plug the gaps.”

Two months from the start of the counteroffensive, officials in Kyiv are projecting confidence while also admitting that it is going slower than expected. Oleskii Reznikov, the Ukrainian defence minister, said this week that Kyiv’s fightback was behind schedule but otherwise proceeding to plan. “It’s war, it’s not a computer game,” he told CNN. His comments came after Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said the counteroffensive was “not going that fast; it is slow.”

John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, sought to allay fears that Ukraine’s forces would get bogged down. “They are moving, it’s not a stalemate,” he said.

THE TIMES