John Bolton’s book is explosive but won’t sway Trump supporters

In the November poll, it will be the state of the economy and handling of the pandemic that are uppermost in American minds.

Donald Trump holds a roundtable discussion with governors about easing restrictions. Picture: AFP.

At the height of the Watergate scandal in 1974 Richard Nixon was compelled to release transcripts of recordings of his Oval Office machinations. Will John Bolton’s book The Room Where it Happened be seen as the Trump-era equivalent?

The recordings revealed how Nixon plotted to cover up the scandal using the shield of national security, which led to his downfall.

President Trump, who has survived impeachment for putting undue pressure on Ukraine to help with his re-election, is now similarly reaching for the national security defence. His lawsuit to prevent full publication of John Bolton’s book seems like an attempt at barn-door closing after much of its contents have been splashed across the US and world media.

Yet Mr Bolton’s veracity and motives can be questioned in a way that the words of Nixon, caught on tape, could not be.

Former National Security Adviser John Bolton listens while Donald Trump speaks to the press. Picture: AFP.

Mr Trump and his allies have launched a campaign to discredit the long-serving former diplomat and dismiss him as a money-grubbing liar, although their attacks are undermined by urgent warnings from the Department of Justice that the book risks “exceptionally grave damage to the United States”.

Mr Bolton was regularly seen in meetings scribbling on large notepads, an indication that he has the kind of contemporaneous notes that can legally be relied on in court.

While the last vestiges of Nixon’s credibility were shattered by the tapes, there is no certainty that the Bolton book will have the same effect on the bedrock of Mr Trump’s base.

The acid test is whether diehard supporters in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that will decide the election will be moved by the allegations of a “swamp creature” like Mr Bolton, who has been a Washington fixture for decades.

Voters in the American heartland with little time for foreign policy debate might hear that the book’s main claim is that Mr Trump pleaded with China to buy more US agricultural products. Mr Bolton portrays this as self-interest by Mr Trump, but farming communities may interpret it differently.

When it comes to voting in November, it will probably be the state of the economy and the associated handling of the coronavirus pandemic that are uppermost in many American minds, perhaps along with the summer of discontent over racism and police reform.

Mr Trump is struggling in the polls because of his handling of these issues. He has slipped to 39 per cent approval in the widely watched Gallup poll and is trailing Joe Biden in enough key swing states to lose the election. However, it is worth noting that Mr Trump had only a 34 per cent approval rating from Gallup on the eve of the 2016 election, and the Biden campaign cannot count on a divisive figure like Mr Bolton to motivate the blue-collar voters he needs for victory.

The Times