Joe Biden behind Donald Trump in swing states: new poll

Bloomberg/Morning Consult finds he trails in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Joe Biden speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One on his return flight from Israel this week. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in several of the swing states expected to decide the 2024 presidential election, a poll has found, as concerns about the US economy continue to weigh on voters.

Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, leads Biden by an average of 47 per cent to 43 per cent in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll revealed.

Just over a year away from polling day, Biden trails his rival in five of those seven swing states, which have decided the race for the White House at the past two elections.

In ominous news for Biden, the poll shows broad dissatisfaction among swing state voters at his handling of the economy. Despite low unemployment and rising wages, along with a string of legislative achievements that promise billions of dollars of investment in American manufacturing and infrastructure, 51 per cent of voters polled said the economy was better off under Trump’s presidency.

Voters said that the economy would be the most important issue to them when casting their ballot next year. Although inflation has fallen steadily since rocketing to a 40-year high in 2022, voters blamed stubbornly high prices for food, petrol and other household items as evidence that Biden’s economic policies were failing.

Biden has sought to rebrand his economic strategy in recent weeks, touting “Bidenomics” as a long-term plan to rebuild America’s crumbling infrastructure and create millions of new jobs in high-tech manufacturing and the green economy.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult confirmed that the pitch is not yet working, however. Only 26 per cent of voters polled said that Bidenomics had been good for the US economy, while 49 per cent said it had been bad.

“Right now, Biden is not getting any credit for work he’s done on the economy,” Caroline Bye, a pollster and vice president at Morning Consult, said. “Almost twice as many voters in the swing states are saying that Bidenomics is bad for the economy, as opposed to good . . . which is a really startling fact if you’re the Biden campaign.”

The poll contained more bad news for Biden on foreign policy, something the White House has considered an asset after the president rallied international allies to confront Russia after the invasion of Ukraine last year. The president has sought to contrast his decades of experience with Trump’s chaotic approach to world affairs and open admiration for authoritarian leaders.

Swing state voters said that they trusted Trump over Biden to handle the war in Ukraine, however, and preferred the former president’s hardline stance against China.

Biden’s age is also a decisive factor, with voters questioning whether the 80-year-old, already the oldest president in US history, can serve a full second term. Trump, who is just three years younger than Biden at 77, faces fewer doubts about his age.

Biden and Trump have been neck and neck in recent nationwide polls, but the new survey is one of the first to gauge the mood of voters in the key battlegrounds for 2024. Together, the seven swing states represent 93 electoral college votes, and will be critical to either candidate’s hopes of reaching the 270 required to win the White House.

Trump won all seven states except Nevada in his defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden flipped those results in 2020, winning all but North Carolina on his way to the White House. The margin of victory in several states at both elections was less than 1 per cent.

The latest poll shows Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden leads in Nevada and the two are tied in Michigan.

The poll did contain one ray of optimism for Biden. The president retains a 5 point lead among suburban women, the key voting bloc who turned decisively against Trump in swing states in 2020 and will be critical to Biden’s hopes of re-election.

Trump faces challenges of his own as he fights four criminal indictments while campaigning to take back the White House. The former president faces 91 federal and state charges related to his attempt to overturn his defeat to Biden in 2020, the hoard of classified documents seized at his Florida home and hush money payments to conceal an alleged affair with a porn star before the 2016 election.

Although Trump’s legal troubles have dominated the news all summer, galvanised his devoted supporters and overshadowed Biden’s achievements, he remains a polarising figure. Pollsters said that many voters in swing states remained concerned about the former president’s alleged criminality. Those concerns could be crystallised as Trump spends much of next year in court.

“When we dive into what voters are seeing, reading and hearing about Donald Trump, a lot of those open-ended [questions] are about criminal activity,” Bye said. “That’s something he’s going to have to overcome in 2024.”

THE TIMES