Israel rehearses ‘major ballistic missile strike’ on Iran

US satellite intelligence documents leaked to pro-Iranian social media ­accounts show Israel holding military drills for a big airborne attack.

Israeli soldiers practice evacuating wounded people during a military drill. Picture: Reuters

Israel has been holding military drills for a major ballistic missile attack on Iran, according to American satellite intelligence documents that have been leaked to pro-Iranian social media ­accounts.

The exercises involved at least 16 airborne missiles, 40 state-of-the-art “Rocks” missiles and refuelling tankers, indicating targets across the country.

The scale of the exercise matched the strikes Israel carried out last month on targets belonging to Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Iran-backed group has attacked Western shipping in the Red Sea and fired drones at Israel.

There is no indication in the leak as to what the precise targets in Iran are – crucially, whether they are standard military targets or sites associated with its nuclear program or oil industry.

US President Joe Biden has tried to warn Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid both, as striking them would cross Iran’s “red lines” and could trigger a wider regional war.

The intelligence also does not hint at any covert activity Mr Netanyahu may be planning in what it says is Israel’s response to an Iran­ian attack on October 1 when 181 ballistic missiles were fired at ­Israeli cities and bases.

Israel has previously used covert oper­ations to destroy nuclear and energy sites, kill scientists and wage ­cyberwar, sometimes acting alone and sometimes with the involvement of the US.

The documents suggest Mr Biden is relying on intelligence as well as what he is told by Mr Netanyahu. On Friday, asked on a visit to Germany for a meeting of the G7 whether he knew how and when Israel planned to respond to the Iranian attack, Mr Biden replied: “Yes and yes.” Asked whether he would reveal the plans, he said: “No and no.”

The two leaked documents marked “top secret” were prepared and presented by the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, which analyses satellite imagery. They somehow ­became public on Friday and were ­circulated on pro-Iranian Telegram messaging accounts and then more widely. The US has not disputed their authenticity.

Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. Picture: AFP

The reports refer mainly to satellite imagery from October 15 and 16. They say the imagery shows that “the Israel Defence Forces continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) activity ­almost certainly for a strike on Iran”. It said an attack could happen without further warning from spy satellites.

The Israeli air force has prepared 16 “golden horizon” missiles and 40 ISO2 Rocks, a US-supplied missile that has been provided to Israel in the past few years. Some Rocks were believed to have been used in a previous Israeli strike on Iran since the start of the Gaza conflict, a limited attack on a military base in April.

The present tit-for-tat was set off by Israel’s escalation of its conflict with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that has been bombarding northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas since Oct­ober last year. Israel killed Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah’s military chief, in a strike on Beirut, and then nearly its entire military and political leadership, including its overall leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in two massive bombing raids.

The scale of Israel’s promised attack on Iran is regarded by diplomats as the most important decision of the war so far.

The suggestion it might be limited to that on the Houthis will re­assure Mr Biden. Less reassuring is that ­according to the imagery, Israel is clearly preparing for a big Iranian response.

It has sailed much of its navy out of port at Haifa, dispersed jets from Ovda air base in the south and also moved its medium-range Jericho II ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear warheads.

“Dispersal is almost certainly defensive,” the report says.

“We have not observed indi­cations that Israel ­intends to use a nuclear weapon.”

The ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1 killed only one person, a Palestinian in the West Bank hit by falling debris from a missile interception, and the US has put pressure on Mr Netanyahu to limit the fallout.

Israel’s Prime Minister is likely to be further emboldened by a drone attack on his home in the Israeli city of Caesarea on Saturday. Of three drones launched by Hezbollah, two were intercepted but one appears to have penetrated defences and landed near the house. The Netanyahus were away and there were no casualties.

The Pentagon is said to be concerned by the leak but it also serves as a warning from the White House to Mr Netan­yahu that it is checking what he tells Mr Biden.

Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, confirmed an investigation into the leak was “under way”, telling CNN “We’re following it closely”.

In the Gaza conflict, at least 87 people were killed and more than 40 wounded in Israeli airstrikes on the city of Beit Lahia, rescue workers have said.

A residential block was levelled in a densely populated residential area, ­according to the Hamas-run government media office.

The civil defence agency said women and children had been killed and the death toll was expected to rise.

Israeli officials said the death toll was exaggerated and the raid was a “precision strike” on a “Hamas terrorist target”.

Workers said the mission to rescue anyone trapped under ­rubble had been hampered by communication and logis­tics challenges in the area, which has been under Israeli siege for 16 days. The civil defence has reported more than 400 people have been killed during that time, and the UN has warned that tens of thousands of civilians were in “grave danger” because of food and water shortages and poor sanitation.

Israel has said it was carrying out a large military operation in the area against Hamas targets and it warned residents to leave. About 400,000 people are still in the area under siege, according to the UN, and very few aid trucks have been allowed to enter. Only about 5000 people have been evacuated “safely out of the area via ­arranged routes”.

Israeli forces said they conducted 175 raids across Gaza and Lebanon in a 24-hour period at the weekend, and Israeli jets launched at least 12 strikes against Beirut’s southern suburbs on Saturday and in the early hours of Sunday.

News of the casualties came after Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the drone attack on the Israeli Prime Minister’s residence.

In a statement that followed the strike, Mr Netanyahu said: “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.

“I say to Iran and its proxies and its axis of evil: anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to Mr Netanyahu on the phone briefly on Saturday, telling his Israeli counterpart the attack had “alarmed” him.

He also said “the world is a better place” after Israel’s killing of Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday and the Hamas leader’s death presented an opportunity for Israel “to halt the fighting and get the hostages out”.

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