Islamic State and al-Qa’ida ready to unleash terror again

Intelligence agencies are bracing for the emergence of ‘caliphates’ across Africa, as IS regroups after Mideast setbacks.

French soldiers in an armoured vehicle as they leave for deployment against hardline Islamist groups controlling northern Mali in 2013. France has recently become disillusioned with the campaign. Picture: AFP

Intelligence agencies are braced for renewed terrorist violence and the emergence of “caliphates” across west Africa as Islamic State, al-Qa’ida and other militias exploit the withdrawal of foreign troops.

After years of attrition in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria from US-led bombing and special operations missions, both of the jihadist groups and their affiliates have been regrouping in the Sahel region.

As Western countries tire of fighting jihadists far from home, the US is withdrawing troops from Afghanistan but shows no sign of being willing to transfer them to Africa.

France, which has been the main Western power in the region, has also become disillusioned at the cost in lives and money.

About 55 French soldiers have been killed since the country first sent troops to try to stabilise the arid region after jihadists took over half of Mali in 2013.

Ivorian soldiers patrol outside the International Academy for Combating Terrorism (AILCT) in Jacqueville in Ivory Coast on June 10.

President Emmanuel Macron says France will suspend military aid to its former colony after a second coup in less than a year.

He said he was also reconsidering the future of the 5100 troops France has established as the vanguard of a military support program that has covered Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad since then.

Other elements of that program are at risk as a consequence. The US has been providing air transport for French forces. Britain has 300 troops from the Light Dragoons serving with UN forces in Mali.

The departure would leave the terrorist groups and their affiliates without a common enemy to fight, sources said on Friday, prompting a brutal struggle for dominance as they compete for influence, recruits and resources.

Jihadist groups are already realigning to take advantage of the expected chaos. Two weeks ago, leaked recordings confirmed that the regional Islamic State franchise, Islamic State West Africa Province (Iswap), had killed Abubakar Shekau, the brutal leader of Boko Haram, Nigeria’s Islamic terrorist group.

He had sworn allegiance to Islamic State in the past, but it appeared the organisation’s central leadership decided he was too extreme and had alienated too many people in Nigeria’s Muslim population.

There was a $US7 million ($9.4m) bounty on Shekau, whose crimes included the mass kidnapping of teenage girls. Iswap is more focused on winning over Muslim civilians while targeting the military.

Abu Musab al-Barnawi, leader of Iswap, had attracted recruits by denouncing Shekau’s embrace of extreme violence, which also included using children as suicide bombers. By killing him, the central Isis leadership looks set to solidify jihadist groups under the leadership of its regional branch.

“They are the stronger horse now,” a Western intelligence source said. “Isis [Islamic State] will drain away a lot of the support for Boko Haram.”

Folahanmi Aina, an expert on Boko Haram and security in the Lake Chad Basin region, said that Iswap’s dominance would prolong the insurgency and would also enable the group to set up training camps for recruits and foreign fighters.

“Iswap appears to be consolidating its dominance in the region, providing it with tactical and operational advantage,” he said. “This could imply a more consolidated Isis presence and the spread of its influence.”

The Times