Invasion force could face long guerrilla conflict

The success of urban warfare mounted by the Ukrainian people would depend on leadership, international help and the brutality of Vladimir Putin’s troops.

The invasion force sent into Ukraine by Vladimir Putin could find itself embroiled in an urban guerrilla war against a highly motivated and well-armed enemy even if the Russians succeed in occupying and controlling Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine.

Determined citizens throwing petrol bombs at Russian troops and military vehicles will not cow a force as capable and as well-equipped as Russia’s army and special forces.

A Ukraine reservist, 28-year-old Anton Lytvyn, packs his military equipment at his house after he was called up to active duty in Kyiv. Picture: Chris McGrath / Getty Images

However, the history of guerrilla and insurgency warfare has shown that if resistance forces are appropriately and consistently armed by sympathetic foreign governments, an invasion force deployed by a military superpower such as Russia can be effectively opposed and even defeated in time.

There are numerous precedents:

The mujahidin, armed by the CIA and backed by the Pakistani intelligence service, fought the Russian occupying forces in Afghanistan for nine years in the 1980s and eventually drove them out of the country.

A US-led coalition force suffered the same ignominy at the hands of the Taliban after 20 years.

The US-led invasion force that defeated Saddam Hussein’s army in 2003 was then challenged by years of guerrilla warfare waged by disillusioned Iraqi soldiers, with the movement metamorphosing into the Islamic State (Isis).

Russian armoured vehicles. Picture: Reuters

The success of a guerrilla war or urban warfare mounted by the Ukrainian people against the Russians would depend on the scale of arms received, the co-ordination and leadership skills crucial for an effective and lengthy campaign, and the level of brutality the armed citizens might face from the occupiers.

Would the people of Kyiv be prepared for or capable of mounting a modern-day Stalingrad? The Battle of Stalingrad, from August 23, 1942 to February 2, 1943 during the Second World War can only be a metaphorical comparison, because it involved the full might of the German 6th Army against the Soviet Union’s Red Army in the most brutal of campaigns.

There were more than 750,000 Soviet and 400,000 German military casualties and 40,000 civilians died before the Germans surrendered.

The scale of the battle, the most horrific example of urban combat in history, is not going to be repeated in Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million.

However, all Ukrainian males of fighting age have been urged by the Kyiv government to take up arms and confront the Russian troops - which could make it significantly harder for President Putin to realise his ambition to control the capital and the rest of the country.

The gun counter of a shop in Kyiv this week, with arms for civlians. Picture: Getty Images

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have had eight years of experience fighting Russian separatists, backed by Spetsnaz special forces sent into eastern Ukraine by the Kremlin. They have learnt tactics and irregular-force skills which could be passed on to a citizens’ army.

There are already more than 150 territorial defence battalions in existence, established to cover the whole country. They are not best-equipped nor manned, but they too could be used to stir up an armed resistance.

A Ukrainian serviceman on the eastern front. Picture: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP

In July last year Ukraine passed a law called the foundations of national resistance, which provides a legal framework for a nationwide resistance campaign.

This was aimed at avoiding the worst scenario for the Kyiv government, which would be a guerrilla war involving thousands of enthusiastic patriots taking up arms without any form of controlled or organised structure.

The Times