Invaders forced back in north before key battle for Donbas

Ukrainian forces have retaken key ground in the north of the country, while a battle that could decide the fate of the Russian invasion looms in the east.

A man walks in the destroyed residential area in Borodianka, Ukraine. The Russian retreat from Borodianka and other towns near Kyiv have revealed the extent of devastation from that country's failed attempt to seize the Ukrainian capital. Picture: Getty Images

Ukrainian forces have retaken key ground in the north of the country, according to British intelligence, while a battle that could decide the fate of the Russian invasion looms in the east.

The Ministry of Defence said the Russian troops had retreated around Chernihiv and north of Kyiv and would need “significant” resupply before being ready for further operations.

“Low-level fighting is likely in some parts of the newly recaptured regions but will diminish significantly over this week as the remainder of Russian forces withdraw,” the MoD said.

Russia has said it is focusing on the east of the country, having been unable to sustain numerous fronts and failing to capture Kyiv in the face of Ukrainian resistance aided by western firepower.

The second phase of the “special military operation” has a renewed emphasis on capturing Luhansk and Donetsk, two regions within Donbas, where fighting has raged since 2014.

The next “pivotal” battle could be in the eastern city of Slovyansk, in the Donetsk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank in the United States said. There are said to be significant Ukrainian forces in place to defend the city, which is larger than Izyum, to its north, which sits on the edge of Ukrainian-controlled territory and has been the scene of heavy clashes.

Analysts believe Russian forces probably intend to cut off Ukrainian forces in the east and will need to take Slovyansk as a minimum to do so. If they take the city they will have the option to advance directly east to link with Russian forces in Rubizhne – a shorter drive that will not isolate many Ukrainian forces – or towards the cities of Horlivka and Donetsk, a wider encirclement. Both options would enable at least limited Russian breakthroughs in the Luhansk region, the think tank said.

However, if Russian forces are unable to take Slovyansk, then Russian assaults in Donbas “are unlikely to independently break through Ukrainian defences and Russia’s campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk will likely fail”.

Thermobaric weapons, known as “vacuum bombs” that suck in oxygen to create a devastating, high-temperature blast, were reportedly deployed in Izyum on Monday to try to push back Ukrainian forces from the 81st Airmobile and 95th Airborne Assault Brigade.

The Russians were able to advance and occupy Topol, Kamianka and Tykhot, the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank, said.

Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary-general, said Russia was regrouping troops away from Kyiv only to mass them in the east and south “for a crucial phase of the war”. He said “Moscow is not giving up its ambitions in Ukraine”, adding: “We expect a further push in the eastern and southern Ukraine to try to take the entire Donbas and to create a land bridge” to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Ukraine has deployed some of its most capable forces to the east, where fighting has taken place against Russian-backed separatists since 2014. The ISW said Russian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions continued to make little to no progress.

Its assessment said that replacements and reinforcements from northeastern Ukraine were “highly unlikely” to change the balance of forces.

Ukraine’s armed forces said that Russian troops were continuing to block Kharkiv, its second biggest city, and carry out artillery shelling that was destroying the city’s residential neighbourhoods and infrastructure. Missile strikes also targeted critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine.

On Tuesday, General Sir Chris Deverell, who was in charge of Britain’s military intelligence, cyber and special forces as head of Joint Forces Command from 2016 to 2019, said that the West’s supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine was “not enough” and western allies should mobilise their military capability to “force Putin’s hyenas out”. He said: “We have to do more for Ukraine. We cannot sit and watch this bestiality imposed on a free and democratic people. If we are deterred by Russia’s nuclear weapons now, why would we not also be when he attacks a NATO country? No, it’s a choice, and we can make a different one.”

The most senior general in the US military offered a stark warning on Tuesday that the war in Ukraine could drag on for years. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee: “I do think this is a very protracted conflict, and I think it’s at least measured in years. I don’t know about a decade, but at least years for sure.”

The Times