How will Nova Kakhovka dam blast affect the Ukraine counter-offensive?

Kyiv’s forces are testing enemy defences. But the dam attack all but rules out a river crossing towards Russian-controlled territory.

If reports of Ukrainian ground manoeuvres are correct, the long expected counter-offensive to recapture Russian-controlled territory is now under way.

Ukraine made clear this weekend that its newly trained, western-equipped forces were as ready as they could be for the great push forward – but stated that no starting gun would be fired.

Russian and American officials have reported Ukrainian advances in the eastern Donbas region that point to Kyiv’s forces testing enemy defences, looking for points of vulnerability, before launching what is expected to be a sophisticated combined arms assault.

Twelve new assault brigades, nine of them western-trained and equipped, will lead the counter-offensive, coming fresh to the battlefield to relieve comrades who have held largely static lines through a long, wet winter and spring.

Russia’s suspected sabotage of the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam all but rules out a river crossing from the direction of Kherson and Mykolaiv towards Russian-controlled territory.

That was always the least credible approach in any case, requiring Ukrainian forces either to cross via the dam itself or on a pontoon across the wide Dnipro river, both of which would have left them vulnerable to Russian positions on the eastern bank.

A woman looks at a flooded street Kherson. Picture: AFP

The sighting of German-made Leopard tanks by Russian-backed separatists on the Zaporizhzhia front line, however, may confirm what is likely to be one of the pressure points for the battle to come.

Military analysts have singled out the areas around Zaporizhzhia and Vuhledar as places from which Ukraine could seek to cut through Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, splitting Moscow’s forces in two and cutting off those in the southwest from supply lines.

Russia’s ministry of defence said on Monday that Ukrainian forces had launched mechanised attacks at five points along the front line in southern Donetsk around Vuhledar to test Russia’s defences.

Ukraine’s deputy defence minister confirmed that its forces were advancing north of Bakhmut, in Donetsk oblast, which Russian mercenaries captured last month in the “meat grinder” of the winter war only to be replaced by less battle-hardened Russian regulars.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has blamed the replacements for a partial retreat that has given Ukraine the prospect of regaining a foothold in the symbolically significant town. Further north, in Luhansk, Ukrainian forces have also carried out probing attacks along the Kreminna-Svatove line, where another front could be opened.

Along the northern border of Kharkiv oblast, Russian anti-Putin partisans have launched attacks across the border into Belgorod, seizing villages and taking prisoners. Although Kyiv denies, implausibly, that it is working with the partisans, the Belgorod incursions are another headache for Moscow, potentially distracting forces from front lines in occupied territories.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen warlord, offered on Sunday to send his forces to Belgorod to deal with the incursions, an offer many saw as an attempt to prevent his men from being deployed in Ukraine. Should the partisans from Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom for Russia Legion penetrate further into Belgorod, they could circle round and trap Russian forces between their own border and a Ukrainian advance.

Local residents look at a partially flooded area of Kherson following damage sustained at Kakhovka HPP dam. Picture: AFP

Whichever combination of fronts Ukraine decides to attack on, the fight for long-held and well defended territory is unlikely to resemble past counter-offensives such as the one last year at Kharkiv, where Russian forces retreated rapidly, leaving a vacuum into which the Ukrainians could advance.

Oleksii Danilov, Ukraine’s national security adviser, told The Times on Tuesday that only a handful of senior officials and commanders were aware of the shape of the battle plan, which would adapt as events unfolded. Russian forces have dug in along the 600-mile front line, constructing multiple defensive layers of trenches, minefields, fortifications and “dragon’s teeth” – concrete pyramids intended to thwart an armoured advance.

Ukraine will be marshalling all its new western kit for combined arms battle groups made up of tanks, armoured infantry fighting vehicles to support them, artillery firepower and infantry. The weakest element is air support: the West did not cave in to Ukraine’s demands for F-16 fighter jets until last month, too late for the summer’s fighting.

A combined arms offensive would typically begin with an artillery barrage followed by tanks to suppress enemy fire, then infantry in armoured fighting vehicles to close on and kill the enemy. Much of the ground Ukraine aims to reconquer is heavily mined, making mine clearance a critical component in securing space to advance.

Ukraine cannot afford to spread itself too thinly but must try to force Russia to do so before choosing where it believes the enemy is most vulnerable. A swift, forceful push would avoid the Russians retreating with their armour intact, only to fight back with artillery, as they did after leaving Kherson city in November.

When the armour intended to punch through Russian fortifications is fielded, there will be no doubt that the counter-offensive is fully under way.

The Times