How team Sunak bounced back from summer’s crushing defeat

Less than 30 minutes before nominations for the Conservative leadership race closed, one brief phone call sealed the fate of Rishi Sunak.

Conservative party leader Rishi Sunak arrives at CCHQ on October 24, 2022 in London, England.

It was, in the end, his rival Penny Mordaunt who became the first person to tell Rishi Sunak he had become prime minister at the second time of asking.

With less than thirty minutes to go before nominations for the Conservative leadership race closed, Mordaunt called Sunak from her Commons office to tell him she was withdrawing from the race, having failed to pick up enough nominations to continue.

The conversation was courteous and relatively brief but, in keeping with Sunak’s approach to the campaign there were no job offers. “He’s relieved but he’s very, very controlled,” one friend said. “He’s thinking about balance, he’s thinking about competence. He resisted giving job offers to anyone during the campaign, including Penny. He wasn’t prepared to offer her DPM [deputy prime minister] or foreign secretary. It has given him freedom.”

Another close confidant of the former chancellor added: “He thinks that unity is all. You’ve got the Liz faction, the Boris faction and to a lesser extent the Mordaunt faction. He is acutely aware that he has got to make room for them all around the table.”

In line with Sunak’s safety-first approach, allies say that until Mordaunt’s call he still feared that the crown might easily be snatched away.

The night before he was given no advance warning of Boris Johnson’s decision to pull out of the race — hearing the news at home when it broke in public around nine o’clock.

What worried Sunak, aides said, was that Johnson’s supporters would rally behind Mordaunt to get her over the bar of 100 nominations and force the contest into the hands of members.

Polls over the summer had consistently shown that Sunak would lose to either Truss or Mordaunt and while much had changed, victory could not be guaranteed. “He spent the whole morning in Portcullis House ringing around MPs trying to bring them on board,” said an ally. “He knew he still had lots of work to do.”

Sunak waves as he is greeted by colleagues at the Conservative Party Headquarters after having been announced as the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest on October 24.

In the event Johnson’s supporters split. Some went to Mordaunt in private but many more, including key cabinet figures such Nadhim Zahawi, James Cleverly and Chris Heaton-Harris, saw which way the wind was blowing and declared for Sunak. When the European Research Group of MPs - seen as hostile to Sunak - announced they were not endorsing a candidate it was clear his victory was to be a coronation.

“Boris withdrawing just sucked the oxygen out of the campaign and it all became about unity,” said one ally of Mordaunt.

“It didn’t help that we had a couple of wobblers who pulled out at the last minute, but in truth even if they hadn’t we wouldn’t have had the numbers.”

But if Sunak was cheered and tables banged when he appeared before Tory MPs in committee room 14 in the wake of his victory both he and his team know that today (Tuesday) is likely to be a high point of the days and weeks ahead.

And the decisions that he makes over the next few days - both in terms of his cabinet appointments but the approach he takes to filling the pounds 40billion black hole in the public finances - will define his premiership.

Allies said that one of the key decisions has already been made. Jeremy Hunt, who has only been chancellor for 12 days, is “almost certain” to keep his job. Less clear are the other appointments. Mordaunt is angling to be made foreign secretary while Cleverly is also making the case for being allowed to remain in post. Dominic Raab, who remained steadfastly loyal to Sunak during the summer’s leadership race, is also in the running for a big job. “He couldn’t have been more helpful,” a close ally of Sunak said.

The constituency home of Rishi Sunak in Northallerton, England.

They said that by mid-August it was only Oliver Dowden, Robert Jenrick, Raab, Mark Harper, Liam Fox and Mel Stride who had stuck around. “They cancelled their holidays to campaign for him, so they will be rewarded,” said one senior member of Sunak’s team. However, others, such as Grant Shapps and Steve Barclay “disappeared”, the source added.

Aides say Sunak is determined not to make the same mistake as Truss by rewarding his supporters with all the key posts. “The last time [in September] the plan for the government was a fairly balanced one and I think this one will be even more so,” said one ally.

Another added: “He is absolutely serious when he says it will be a government of all the talents. He knows he cannot unite the party unless it includes the full spectrum of views in the party.”

Asked which ministers they would like to see in the new cabinet, one Sunak supporter said: “I haven’t given it much thought but the most important to put back is Gove and to kick out is Mogg”. Another Sunak supporter said that “it would be silly for him to fire everyone as you just recreate the problem”. They added that Sunak would “need to keep a lot” of Truss’s government.

But one Sunak backer said they expected Sunak to hold a big clearout of supporters of Truss deemed unsuited to ministerial office, especially at the lower rungs of government. “He is an eat your greens kind of guy.”

Balancing the warring Tory tribes in his government will be the easy part compared to the task of balancing the books - that is likely to require unpalatable spending cuts and tax rises.

Sunak was candid about the choices ahead when he addressed MPs.

He warned the Conservatives and the country faced an existential threat. “We have got an economic crisis and a political crisis,” he said. The public will hold us accountable for it unless we fix it now.”

He insisted that electoral defeat in 2024 was not inevitable adding: “We’ve got time before the next election, we’ve got the talent, the energy and the ideas, but we get one shot and no second chances. This is an existential moment.”

Vicky Ford MP, Minister of State (Minister for Development) Jacob Rees-Mogg, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Chloe Smith, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions leave 10 Downing Street after a cabinet meeting. Rees-Mogg is tipped to be dismissed by Sunak.

Potential pitfalls are everywhere. Sunak enters office without an endorsement from Conservative members, something MPs may hear about at their next association meeting. There is also a significant minority of MPs who did not endorse him, and still blame him for bringing down Johnson. Everyone remembers, just seven weeks ago, Tory MPs pledged similar loyalty to Truss and look how that ended.

But one factor in the new prime minister’s favour may be the fact that many of Truss and Johnson’s biggest advocates accept his assessment that the crisis facing the Tories is existential.

Take Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary who during the summer Tory leadership campaign branded Sunak “the much lamented socialist chancellor” and said that he would refuse to serve in his cabinet.

That tone has now changed. He has offered Sunak his unconditional support despite having no expectation of keeping his job. This morning he is scheduled to take the retained EU law bill through the Commons — by this afternoon he is likely to be replaced.

But Rees-Mogg will back Sunak come what may, such is the concern about the scale of Labour’s lead in the polls. And the overwhelming view of the party is one of relief, typified by one former cabinet minister who declared: “Thank God that’s all over.” The private fear, of course, is that it isn’t.

The Times