How could the Ukraine war end? Three possible scenarios explored
President Donald Trump’s talks with Vladimir Putin could result in a deal to halt the conflict. Here’s an examination of how that agreement might shape up.
President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has, to some extent, already failed.
In February 2022, the Russian president ordered his troops to conquer Kyiv, decapitate Ukraine’s democratically elected government and install a puppet leader loyal to the Kremlin.
Three years later and one thing is clear: Putin has underestimated Ukrainian resolve. President Volodymyr Zelensky remains alive and Kyiv is no longer threatened by Russian tanks. However, US President Donald Trump has demanded an end to the fighting and wants to meet Putin face-to-face in Saudi Arabia to hammer out a deal.
Which option they choose will determine whether Putin can claim victory – and potentially whether Ukraine can retain its independence.
CAPITULATION
Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukraine, spread across the provinces of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Yet Putin wants more. In a list of demands issued last summer, the Russian president laid claim to the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson even though they are under Ukrainian control.
Ukraine is starved of US weapons and short of manpower. If it continues to suffer grinding losses on the battlefield, a bad deal could force Zelensky to concede more territory.
Unable to hold on to Ukraine’s one point of leverage – its toehold in Russia’s Kursk region – he would have to accept Russia’s demands. The Ukrainian constitution would have to be amended to include references to Ukraine’s neutrality and provide legal protection for the Russian language.
The US would give a firm commitment to Russia that Ukraine would never join NATO.
“It’s possible the Americans could throw the Ukrainians under the bus and walk away – that’s how Trump dealt with Afghanistan,” John Foreman, the former British defence attache to Moscow, says.
In this scenario, Zelensky would be left in charge of a significantly weakened Ukraine.
STALEMATE
Despite Russia’s advances in recent months, the front line has scarcely moved and a breakthrough by either side appears unlikely. Russia was meant to capture Pokrovsk months ago and yet the battle for the vital Donbas garrison town is still raging.
“If there’s one conclusion we can prematurely draw from this war, it is that the Russian ability to take over Ukraine is limited,” Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said.
At the same time, Ukraine’s hopes of a counteroffensive have faded and a best-case scenario might be to acknowledge a stalemate. The front line would be frozen and a buffer zone monitored by a contingent of European peacekeepers from NATO countries, potentially more than 100,000 troops.
Ukraine could use the ceasefire to continue investing in long-range drones and ballistic missiles, meaning that a further invasion by Russia would be met with retaliatory strikes on Moscow.
“Psychologically, the Ukrainian drone attacks have brought the war home for quite a lot of Russians,” Ferris said.
Although Trump might stop giving military aid to Ukraine, he could agree to sell weapons – most importantly, air defence missiles – to Kyiv in exchange for a preferential deal on its rare earth minerals.
SUBJUGATION
For Ukraine, the nightmare is that Trump offers Kyiv no security guarantees – and neither does Europe.
Putin would then end the war, confident that he can restart it whenever he wishes.
Under this scenario, European countries would refuse to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine and instead the 600-mile front line would be thinly patrolled by the UN’s Blue Helmets or a similar international force of peacekeepers.
With no intention of abiding by the peace deal, Russia would re-equip its army and launch a renewed assault on Ukraine at a later date.
European leaders would be unwilling to respond and the US would not intervene, claiming it was Europe’s problem. International peacekeepers would withdraw days before fighting begins. “Putin would say Ukraine has broken the terms of [the] deal and claim there has been ethnic cleansing of Russians,” Foreman said.
Ukraine might try to put up a fight, but Russia would have learnt from the mistakes of 2022. The US would refuse to sell Kyiv air defence missiles and Russia would achieve air superiority. Putin would capture the country and oust Zelensky. Ukraine would be turned into a vassal state, similar to Belarus.
The Times
