How Cleverly team’s not so clever move lost him the Tory leadership

James Cleverly was widely expected to make the final two in the Tory leadership race. Instead, he was knocked out of the race by a simple blunder his team thought would help him win.

(L- R) Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch. Picture: Getty Images,

In the end, the only knowable truth was that Conservative MPs more than lived up to their reputation as the most “duplicitous and unpredictable electorate in the world”.

Before Wednesday afternoon, the belief in Westminster was that James Cleverly was certain to make the final two in the Tory leadership election, having surged into first place on Tuesday ahead of Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. He was not only beaten into third place by his rivals, though – he lost support from the previous round.

So what might have happened?

The allegations centre on “vote-lending”, a practice that involves an MP aligned with one candidate backing a rival in an attempt to manipulate the result. The intent is usually to inflate another candidate’s support at the expense of a third, knocking them out of the race by leaving them in last place.

But with such tight margins in this contest, given the significantly diminished size of the Conservative parliamentary party, the smallest miscalculation can backfire.

The prime conspiracy theory is that the Cleverly campaign, buoyed by its strong performance on Tuesday, thought it had enough votes to “lend” some supporters to Jenrick in an attempt to knock Badenoch out of the final two, yet still come top.

Conservative Party Leadership candidates Kemi Badenoch (L), Robert Jenrick (C) and James Cleverly. Picture: AFP.

The motivation would have been that polls of Tory members suggested that, in a run-off between Badenoch and Cleverly, Badenoch would win, but in a run-off with Jenrick, Cleverly would prevail. One former cabinet minister laid the blame at the door of Grant Shapps, the former defence secretary, who was “running the numbers” for the Cleverly campaign.

“He’ll have been a clever dick and thought that Jenrick was easier for James to beat among the membership than Kemi, so suggested to some of their supporters that they lent votes to him,” they said. “But it clearly backfired and now he’s out altogether.”

Other Tory MPs said they were all “too clever by half” and capable of messing things up without being told what to do. One admitted supporting Cleverly but changing their vote to Badenoch to push out Jenrick. “Frankly, I’m feeling a bit sick now,” they admitted. Another added: “This doesn’t need to be organised – MPs are quite capable of being mercurial on their own. Some might have voted for James yesterday and then assumed he would win, so switched their vote to try and exclude the candidate they disliked the most. And it’s such a small electorate where a few votes make a difference.”

A third theory is that Cleverly never had the level of support that he appeared to have on Tuesday but rather had been “lent” votes by the Jenrick camp to push Badenoch into third place and make it seem as if she were losing momentum. If that was the plan, it misfired: Cleverly surged ahead and just a single vote separated Jenrick and Badenoch. The reason Jenrick’s team would do this is that polls suggest that in a run-off between Jenrick and Badenoch, she would win among party members.

Former Tory leadership candidate Tom Tugendhat with supporters. Picture: Getty Images.

Finally there is the personal. Despite suggestions that Cleverly was bound to pick up most of Tom Tugendhat’s supporters when he was knocked out of the contest, because they were both centrist candidates, some sources think personal animosity might have meant they chose to vote a different way.

“I think the Cleverly camp may have underestimated just how much Tom and some of his supporters were angry with him for appearing to make fun of his military record at conference,” said one. “That went down very badly.”

It is now down to the members to choose the winner between two candidates from the right of the party.

A Cleverly-supporting MP said Badenoch or Jenrick becoming leader would soon become untenable. “The party’s screwed,” they said. “The public will look at us at the next election and think, ‘These people haven’t learnt a thing’. But we’ll probably be doing this again in 18 months anyway.”

Another said: “I do worry that Jenrick could win this thing. He is a very aggressive campaigner and I hate to say it but there is quite a bit of latent racism in the membership, which could damage Kemi. If Jenrick wins then we’re going to see a repeat of IDS [Iain Duncan Smith, who became leader in 2001 but was ousted two years later]. He can’t out-Farage Farage and will make the party look mad to everyone else.”

Labour MPs were jubilant. Allies of Sir Keir Starmer had said they were most nervous about Cleverly winning but yesterday (Wednesday) a Labour MP joked: “I wonder if we’ll have to declare this as a gift.” We may never know the truth. One thing is clear, however: the Tories may largely be a political sideshow but it is still an entertaining one.

The Times