Harris leads Trump in four of seven swing states: Times poll

A survey taken by YouGov after Democratic convention suggests the vice-president may be on course to win the electoral college.

The polling also found that Kamala Harris was ahead of Donald Trump on likeability but behind him on sincerity

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in four of the swing states likely to decide the election and is narrowly behind in three others, according to polling for The Times.

The latest polling represents a dramatic reversal of fortune in the race for the White House since US President Joe Biden withdrew in July, when Mr Trump led in all seven states.

Ms Harris is now ahead in Michigan by five percentage points, Nevada and Wisconsin by three points and by a single point in Pennsylvania, YouGov found.

Mr Trump retains a narrow lead of two points in Arizona and Georgia, and of a single point in North Carolina.

Overall, if polling averages in the other states are accurate this would give Ms Harris a narrow lead in the electoral college, which will decide the US presidency in November.

The Vice-President has a five-point gain for the Democratic ticket across the swing states on average compared with Mr Biden’s position seven weeks ago.

She is ahead of Mr Trump on likability but behind the former president on sincerity.

Allan Lichtman, a historian with a near-perfect record of election forecasting over the past 40 years, including calling 2016 for Mr Trump, told The New York Times that his model predicted a win for Ms Harris.

Carl Bialik, vice-president of data science and US politics editor at YouGov, said: “Even compared to March, a better time for the Biden campaign, Harris is running ahead or even in each state. She is running ahead of, or even with, Mr Biden’s 2020 performance in five of the seven states.”

In 2020, Mr Biden won six of them and the election. If the leads in these states hold up and the remaining states vote the same way they did in 2020, then Ms Harris would win the electoral college vote by 276 to 262.”

In each state, at least 65 per cent of registered voters described the national economy as fair or poor, as opposed to excellent or good. At least 61 per cent in each state were similarly downbeat about the state economy. “Not much has changed in terms of the issues people care about most, how they feel about the national or state economy,” Mr Bialik said.

Forty-three per cent of voters in these seven states said they liked Ms Harris a lot or somewhat, compared with 35 per cent for Mr Trump, and 41 per cent disliked Ms Harris a lot or somewhat, compared with 53 per cent for Mr Trump.

Voters rated Mr Trump higher on sincerity, with 51 per cent saying he “says what he believes” and 42 per cent that he “says what he thinks people want to hear”, while 40 per cent and 53 per cent respectively thought the same of Ms Harris.

The polling was conducted between August 23, the day after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and Tuesday this week, so may include a post-convention bounce for Ms Harris.

Mr Bialik said: “Even though she is ahead in some crucial states, she is not ahead by much and that could turn around.”

There was little difference in favourability: 44 per cent of swing state voters had a “very” or “somewhat” favourable view of Ms Harris, compared with 43 per cent for Mr Trump.

YouGov polled seven battleground states between August 23 and September 3 for The Times and Say24, a joint project between Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.

The sample size in each state was 1000 voters, except in Arizona and Wisconsin (900) and Nevada (800). These were the same respondents who were interviewed in July.

THE TIMES