Five obstacles to a Gaza ceasefire deal
Despite mediators’ push for a 60-day truce, Israel and Hamas remain far apart on key points, not least because it is unlikely the militants will willingly cede power in Gaza.
Scenes of carnage have become all too familiar to Palestinians and Israelis, but the bombs keep falling.
Footage of the bodies of bloodied women and children in Gaza after an Israeli strike on Thursday underlined the urgency of a potential ceasefire that has been under discussion in Qatar and in Washington.
President Trump said he hoped Israel and Hamas would reach an agreement this week or next, for at least a 60-day truce that would allow the release of some hostages. However, as in previous rounds of talks in Doha, the divide between the two sides seems unbridgeable.
Here are the five key obstacles to a deal.
1. Permanently ending the war
Hamas, the brutal Islamist group which started the conflict by attacking Israel on October 7, 2023, wants guarantees that the temporary truce now on the table will lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities.
Israel’s hardline government wants a temporary arrangement that would release at least half of the remaining hostages still held in Gaza. After that, the suggestion has been that the war would then resume, only ending with the destruction of Hamas.
On Thursday, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, reportedly shifted his position, telling relatives of the hostages that, once a temporary ceasefire was in place, “we will work to bring the entire war to an end”. However, he did not specify what Israel’s further conditions for that might be.
2. The survival of Hamas
If the war does end, Hamas has shown no sign that it is willing to relinquish control in Gaza or atone for the catastrophe it brought upon the now-destroyed territory.
The Palestinian Authority, its West Bank rival backed by Arab governments, says Hamas must cede power. But many believe the proponents of the October 7 massacres will seek to regroup and avoid any accountability, from Israel or fellow Palestinians.
Hamas has said it would support a technocratic government that would run the territory, but it has shown no willingness to lay down its weapons or let go of power behind the scenes. Israel is likely to view this as an unacceptable security risk and has demanded the group’s surviving leaders go into exile.
3. The withdrawal of Israeli troops
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) currently control up to 60 per cent of Gaza’s territory but Hamas has insisted they leave as part of the negotiations.
Israel is demanding that it keep its troops in the so-called Morag corridor in southern Gaza, north of Rafah, and in a buffer zone along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Hamas is demanding further pullbacks during the 60 days, and a complete withdrawal with a permanent truce later.
4. What to do with the population
Israel’s leaders apparently see an opportunity to rid Gaza of many of its inhabitants, in what was once a far-right fantasy that was anathema to the broader public.
The October 7 attack, which killed more than 1100 Israelis, and comments by Mr Trump helped to bring the idea into the Israeli mainstream. When Mr Trump suggested displacing all Gazans and turning the territory into an American-controlled Riviera, Israel’s government enthusiastically embraced the proposal, which Mr Trump’s Arab allies were predictably opposed to.
When he met Mr Netanyahu at the White House this week, Mr Trump claimed he had “great co-operation” from Middle Eastern states towards accepting emigres from Gaza, though there is no sign of that across the region.
Privately, Mr Trump is said to be cooling on the idea, although it is being embraced wholeheartedly by Israel’s government. Mr Netanyahu recently instructed the Israeli military to prepare plans for an internment camp, dubbed a “humanitarian city”, that would house many of Gaza’s 2.1 million people while they are encouraged to “voluntarily” leave. The IDF, however, object to the plan.
Palestinians within the territory are desperate for an end to the war, even if, for some, it means leaving their home.
5. Public optimism vs private intransigence
Publicly, at least, both Israeli and US officials are still talking up the chances of a ceasefire deal. Marco Rubio, Mr Trump’s secretary of state, said on Thursday: “I think we’re closer ... I think, perhaps, we’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while.”
Mr Trump has been pressuring both Netanyahu and Hamas to end the war. But in Washington, the Israeli prime minister denied he was under pressure from Mr Trump. “President Trump wants a deal, but not at any price. I want a deal, but not at any price,” Mr Netanyahu said. “Israel has security requirements and other requirements, and we’re working together to try to achieve it.”
Internationally, Israel finds itself increasingly isolated over its conduct in Gaza, where more than 56,000 Palestinians have been killed in 21 months, according to the Hamas-linked health ministry.
However, Israel’s government may believe it has the upper hand. It is riding high on a series of victories that were once unimaginable. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is devastated. Iran’s nuclear facilities have been bombed to tatters and Israel’s military has freedom to act against its enemies - from Gaza to Lebanon to Yemen.
For Hamas and Gaza, they reason, vae victis. As Brennus told his new subjects after the sack of Rome: “Woe to the vanquished.”
The Times
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