Erdogan hopes to revive collapsed Ukrainian grain deal

The meeting between the Turkish president and Vladimir Putin at Sochi is the only realistic opportunity to get it back on track.

A cargo ship after leaving the southern Ukranian port of Odesa on Friday. Picture: AFP

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will try to revive a grain export deal between Russia and Ukraine when he meets President Vladimir Putin overnight on Monday.

The discussion will come as Ukraine finally makes progress in its counteroffensive, with a top general saying his troops had broken through Russian defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia region. “We are now between the first and second defensive lines,” Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told The Observer newspaper.

The grain agreement had eased a global food crisis until Moscow withdrew from it in the northern summer. The original deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN in July last year, allowed food and fertiliser to be exported from Ukrainian ports Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi, despite Russia’s invasion and blockade.

Russia had claimed a parallel UN deal to help Moscow overcome obstacles to its food and fertiliser shipments was not honoured. A meeting between the presidents at the port of Sochi on the Black Sea has been anticipated for weeks as the only realistic opportunity to get the grain deal back on track.

Since the collapse, Russia has tried to damage Ukrainian port infrastructure and threatened cargo ships in the Black Sea. Russia’s army said on Sunday it had targeted “fuel storage” facilities in the Ukrainian port of Reni, which lies on the Danube River that separates Ukraine from NATO member Romania. Moscow has targeted Reni and the port of Ismail – both near Romania and across the war-torn country from fighting hotspots – several times over the past few weeks.

Turkey, a NATO member, has maintained a delicate balance between the West and Russia over the war. While providing combat drones to Kyiv, Turkey has refrained from imposing sanctions on Moscow. Mr Erdogan retains ties with Mr Putin and is confident the deal can be revived. He said last month, however, that it depended on “Western countries fulfilling their promises”.

Kyiv acknowledges Mr Erdogan’s role as a potential broker. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said recently: “Erdogan is the only leader who can get Putin back to the deal.”

Sanctions have not been imposed on Russian grain exports. US officials said Moscow had exported grain and fertilisers at or above pre-invasion levels.

Mr Putin said only about 3 per cent of Ukraine’s exports under the deal went to low-income countries. The UN said Ukraine’s exports helped lower global prices, aiding poorer countries. Russia and Ukraine are among the top grain exporters. UN figures show that between 2018 and 2020, Africa imported wheat worth $US3.7bn from Russia and $US1.4bn from Ukraine.

The Times