Energy alert after Russia turns off gas to western Europe

Germany is threatened with significant energy shortages after Russia shut down one of its biggest natural gas pipelines to western Europe on Monday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Picture: AFP

Germany is threatened with significant energy shortages after Russia shut down one of its biggest natural gas pipelines to western Europe on Monday, with ministers in Berlin warning of a “nightmare scenario” if the taps are turned off indefinitely.

Russia, hit with extensive Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, has sharply cut gas supplies to Europe in recent weeks, prompting accusations that it is using the continent’s reliance on its energy as a tool to pressure states and drive divisions between them.

Poland, Bulgaria and Finland have been cut off from Russia’s gas networks and deliveries to Italy and Austria have been ­reduced by as much as 70 per cent.

There are fears that without the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – shut down for 10 days, ostensibly for maintenance on components – Germany will not have enough gas to get through the winter. The pipeline carries up to 55 billion cubic metres of gas across the Baltic each year, accounting for well over a third of Germany’s imports, although the volume has already reduced by 60 per cent since the start of the summer.

The German government regards the route as essential for its plan to amass enough gas in underground storage facilities to see the economy through the winter without having to ration supplies.

Russia insists Nord Stream 1 will resume operations next Thursday, but Germany and its ­allies have little faith in that promise and officials are preparing for a worst-case scenario in which the gas reserves could run out as soon as January.

The most pessimistic models suggest the German economy could collapse by as much as 12.7 per cent, in what would be the country’s worst recession since World War II.

France is bracing itself for the worst with an attempt to model how the disruption might cascade through its own industry.

“Let’s prepare for a total cut-off of Russian gas: today that is the likeliest option,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

“We have to anticipate it and put ourselves in the order of battle from this moment.”

Such is Germany’s determination to keep the gas flowing that it has in some cases lobbied its partners to ease their sanctions on Russia, at the risk of undermining Western unity. Canada said at the weekend it would return a gas turbine from Nord Stream 1 that had been sent to Montreal for repairs but impounded after the outbreak of war.

Ukraine urged Canada to ­reverse the decision, saying that it amounted to adjusting the sanctions imposed on Moscow “to the whims of Russia”.

The foreign ministry added that Russia had no need of the turbine and its demands were an act of “blackmail that has no technical justification”, purely intended to exploit the political cracks ­between NATO members.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, under political pressure on the home front, argued last week that the EU should relax the sanctions regime in the name of ­“de-escalation”.

Polls indicate that 48 per cent of voters feel ­financially worse off than they were a year ago and 66 per cent are unhappy with the way his government has handled ­energy security.

Support for Ukraine also ­appears to be weakening, with 38 per cent of Germans telling the most recent Deutschlandtrend survey they would not support ­action against Russia if energy and food prices continued to rise.

The Times