‘Crucial window’ to avoid Ukraine invasion: US, UK

In marked change of tone, UK and US agree they’ve a last chance to avert conflict in Ukraine as Moscow hints at peaceful solution.

Members of the Ukrainian State Border Guard stand watch at the border crossing between Ukraine and Belarus. Picture: Getty Images.

Boris Johnson and President Biden said yesterday that there remained a “crucial window” to avoid a Russian invasion of Ukraine as Moscow hinted that it was still open to a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

In a marked change of tone the two western leaders agreed there was an opportunity to avert conflict as international efforts to ease tensions increased. The Russian foreign minister used a televised meeting with President Putin to hold the door open to peace.

“It seems to me that our possibilities [of diplomacy] are far from being exhausted,” Sergey Lavrov said. “[Talks] certainly should not continue indefinitely, but at this stage I would suggest that they continue and be intensified.”

Separately the Russian defence minister said that some military drills, which have fanned fears of invasion, had ended or were coming to a close.

The Ukraine-Belarus border crossing where Russian forces are conducting large-scale military exercises. Picture: Getty Images.

The developments came after Kiev’s ambassador to London had signalled that Ukraine may be prepared to suspend its efforts to join Nato to avert war.

One senior British government source said there had been a “small but apparent change in Russia’s rhetoric” that had increased hope that it might be looking for a way to end the crisis. Another added: “It is clear that there is a small window in which it might be possible to turn things around but there is a lot of work to get there.”

However, western officials believe that Russia now has enough troops on the border of Ukraine to mount a large-scale military operation on several fronts – and the build-up is continuing.

There are 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) massed within striking distance of Ukraine, amounting to 60 per cent of Russia’s ground combat power, according to western estimates.

US reports suggest that Russia has a plan to invade Ukraine from the east and the north simultaneously with the intention of surrounding Kiev within one to two days. Preparations for a multi-pronged assault appear to be in the final stages and information from Russian communications indicates that the goal would be to encircle the Ukrainian capital as quickly as possible, US media reported, based on unnamed intelligence sources.

Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary said that Putin could launch an invasion of Ukraine “almost immediately”.

Ukrainians participate in a Unity March to show solidarity amid escalating tensions with Moscow. Picture: Getty Images.

A western official said: “We regard this as a moment of great jeopardy. We think decisions are imminent and that action could follow soon after.”

President Zelensky of Ukraine said that the country would hold a “day of unity” tomorrow – the day he had been told Russia might invade.

“We do not encroach on others, but we will not give up our own,” he said. “We have a wonderful army. Our guys have unique combat experience and modern weapons. This is an army many times stronger than eight years ago.”

Downing Street said after Johnson’s call with Biden that the two leaders had agreed “western allies must remain united in the face of Russian threats, including imposing sanctions should Russian aggression escalate”. The statement added: “The leaders emphasised that any further incursion into Ukraine would result in a protracted crisis for Russia, with far-reaching damage for both Russia and the world.

“They also reiterated the need for European countries to reduce their dependence on Russian gas.”

This followed comments by Johnson that Europe needed to “yank out the hypodermic drip feed” of Russian gas supplies amid disputes over how extensive any sanctions should be and whether they should include the automatic cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if an invasion took place.

Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, who has been reluctant to commit himself to cancelling the project, is due to hold talks with Putin in Moscow today (Tuesday).

The Ministry of Defence said last night that in the “spirit of solidarity” it would send a small number of military personnel to support Lithuania with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance along its border with Belarus.

The Times