Conservative party can still oust Boris Johnson in weeks

Before British MPs break for the summer recess on July 21 there is another chance for a confidence vote.

Boris Johnson chairs cabinet on Tuesday hours before the resignations of Sajid Javid, left, and Rishi Sunak, right. Picture: AFP

Under Conservative leadership rules, unless he decides to quit, Boris Johnson is theoretically safe from another challenge to his position until next May.

The word “theoretically” is key, however, and in practice there are ways for Tory MPs to push him out.

The first is a visit from Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee. It was Sir Graham who in 2019 told then prime minister Theresa May that her time was up – even though she had survived a confidence vote only six months before.

Sir Graham told Mrs May she had lost the confidence of a ­majority of Tory MPs and that if she did not stand down the rules would be changed to allow ­another vote, even though a year had not passed since the previous one.

Sir Graham is likely to come under pressure to perform a similar duty this time around. But what if Mr Johnson refuses to go? Then things become messy.

The other way of ousting Mr Johnson is for the executive of the 1922 Committee to change the rules that state that the prime minister cannot face another leadership election for a year. However, that executive is up for election itself by a vote of all Tory backbenchers in the coming weeks.

The existing committee could decide to change the rules to allow another confidence vote before its successor is appointed, but in this febrile environment, that would be controversial. Alternatively it could wait for the elections to take place – with the new committee meeting to decide what to do.

Either way, before MPs break for the summer recess on July 21 there is another chance for a confidence vote.

If Mr Johnson won that vote, he would be safe but that would seem unlikely given his 211-148 victory last month and events since. If he lost, a leadership election would begin immediately and Mr Johnson would not be eligible to stand.

Conservative leadership elections have two stages: an MPs’ stage and a membership stage. Sir Graham is in charge of the first stage, where the goal is to whittle down however many candidates stand to a final two, who will then be put before party members.

MPs get one vote each and there is no preferential system. It is a secret ballot. The candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and all the others proceed to another vote, until only two remain.

How long this would take depends on how many candidates there are. In 2016 there were five candidates and only two ballots of MPs were held. In 2019 there were 10 candidates and five ballots.

Once the parliamentary party has settled on two candidates, the membership enters the process – voting by postal ballot on the final choice. In 2019 Mr Johnson beat then foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt by 66 per cent to 34 per cent.

The Times