China’s ‘wolf warriors’ scent opportunity in US-EU rift

China is on a charm offensive in Europe and Beijing’s pledges of eternal friendship are resonating with diplomats humiliated by Trump’s ‘America First’ approach to global diplomacy.

Xi Jinping has targeted the EU after the Trump tariffs.

The wolf warrior had a simple message for Europe. “I find it shocking how brutally and domineeringly Trump is dealing with his allies,” said Lu Shaye, the man President Xi has entrusted to win over the EU heads of government.

“Our European friends would do well to compare Trump’s policies with those of China,” he added in Beijing. “They will see that our diplomacy is focused on peace, goodwill and a win-win co-operation.”

In a speech on the margins of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Lu invited Brussels to boost trade by benefiting from China’s financial muscle. The special envoy for European affairs has previously questioned the right of the Baltic states, once part of the Soviet Union, to exist.

“I hope our European friends will take the opportunity to reflect on some of their past policies towards China and at least adopt a more positive stance,” Lu, 60, added.

Inside the corridors of Brussels, the pledges of eternal friendship are resonating with diplomats who have been upset and humiliated by President Trump’s “America First” approach to global diplomacy. Beijing has launched a charm offensive to woo leaders bruised by Trump’s insults and tariffs before the 50th anniversary of its diplomatic relations with Brussels.

Xi Jinping’s Europe envoy Lu Shaye.

Trump has called into question the existence of NATO, while hitting Europe with stinging economic tariffs. He memorably noted that the EU was formed “to screw the United States”.

In contrast, even the Chinese proponents of nationalistic “wolf warrior” confrontational diplomacy are more emollient. This has set alarm bells ringing across the Atlantic and observers in some capitals are concerned that Europe could drift eastwards, away from the West.

“Where we step back, China will step up,” James O’Brien, a US assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs in the Biden administration, warned Congress this week. “Simply put, Europe provides the most consistent and powerful set of partners,” he said. “With the US and Europe together we have close to three times Russia and China’s combined GDP. Europe shares our values along with an irreplaceable 80-year history.”

Diplomats, however, have told The Times that Beijing’s entreaties are not falling on deaf ears. The suggestion that China was Europe’s “true and constant friend” has been the talk of Brussels, Berlin, Paris and beyond. One EU diplomat said: “We see the overtures and it is clear China is trying to make hay.”

The envoy noted that the recent rhetoric had not been accompanied by any changes in policy, especially on helping Russia evade western sanctions targeting Putin’s war machine. “It is a big topic,” the diplomat said. “Nice words are nice, but for a substantive realignment with China something needs to fundamentally change on their side.”

Some northern European countries are concerned. An envoy from a nation that is hawkish on China said: “A smiling wolf still has teeth – is he just being friendly or are you his prey?”

Despite the reservations, evidence is mounting that Trump is driving Europeans into the neutral camp on the question of whether they should avoid taking sides in the rivalry between China and the United States over who will become the globally dominant power.

Along with the friendly overtures, Chinese officials have stepped up criticism of European countries for not being independent of the US on foreign or trade policy, arguments that resonate in key capitals with strong economic links to China.

During recent talks between EU ambassadors, diplomats returning from Beijing for consultations in Belgium, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia called for closer ties to China in response to Trump’s hostility. A Spanish envoy said: “Europe should not pick sides between the US and China. Trump is proving it.”

Late last month, as relations with Trump went from bad to worse, France hosted Ma Zhaoxu, 61, a senior Chinese diplomat – and another wolf warrior – for talks in Paris. “France and China must work together to defend multilateralism and advance peace and security,” said Frederic Mondoloni, a senior French diplomat responsible for European political and security affairs.

In autumn last year, deep EU rifts opened on European tariffs of 45 per cent levied on Chinese electric vehicles. Spain was publicly critical while Germany and Hungary voted against the measures. Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s trade commissioner, will go to Beijing later this month to try to resolve the dispute, possibly by luring Chinese electric car producers to Europe.

There are signs in any future tussle between Washington and Beijing for global dominance that Europe is moving towards neutrality – a strong tendency in southern countries including France, Spain and Italy.

In 2019 the EU described China as a “systemic rival” but an internal Brussels diplomatic paper stressed in 2023 that the bloc should stay out of a “zero-sum binary contest” between the two superpowers.

Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative American think tank, warned that Washington was losing the argument. “Europe has an interest in taking sides in the ongoing struggle between a future led by the US and its democratic allies and one led by China,” he said.

“Chinese diplomatic and economic integration efforts in Europe have sought to promote the narrative of a third way in which Europe sits astride the American and Chinese poles, rather than moving in greater alignment with the US. This soft neutrality, were it to come to fruition, would greatly hamper future US strategy to constrain China.”

Kochis highlighted figures showing that from 2013 to 2021 China provided dollars 133 billion for infrastructure projects across Europe, compared with only dollars 12 billion from the US.

“Stepping back from Europe in a major way will invariably harm US interests,” he said. “China is systematically competing with the US for influence in Europe.”

The Times