Last week in this space I explained how America’s Republicans had been transformed in the past decade from the party of Ronald Reagan’s conservative orthodoxy to the party of social and economic populism.
Despite the almost universal depiction of modern populism as the second coming of the Nazis, despite its inevitable association with the rebarbative character of Donald Trump, despite plenty of evidence that, in office, populists have hardly established a reputation for managerial competence, there is much for conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic to welcome in the values of this new political order. Reasserting the primacy of the nation state, its sovereignty and its borders; restoring the centrality in our culture of the core values of western civilisation; redirecting the resources of the state to redress economic inequality and limit the power of vast impersonal businesses and institutions - they are all urgently necessary goals consistent with advancing the larger cause of individual freedom.
But there’s an important aspect to modern populism that is unwelcome and ultimately ruinous: a superseding nihilism. In an age that elevates grievance, populists posture on the side of the people by indulging a psychology of victimhood. Rebelling against the hegemony of progressive elites, it’s much easier to play the popular hero through rejecting than inspiring. Voting for Brexit or Trump represents the delicious self-indulgence of a raised finger to our despised masters. What comes next? What do they actually do with the fruits of that victory? Nothing. They don’t really care.
All of that was on display this week in yet another moment when the unprecedented became routine in American politics. On Tuesday Kevin McCarthy was ousted as the Speaker of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives in the equivalent of a no-confidence motion.
Mr Speaker, unlike his British counterpart, is a leading political protagonist in the US. He is head of his party in the House and, in consultation with his top colleagues, largely sets the legislative agenda for the body. He is also, per the constitution, the second in line of succession to the presidency, though it’s not clear if that applies to a stand-in. But if something untoward should happen to both President Biden and Kamala Harris, the vice-president, the world could wake up to President Patrick McHenry, the congressman designated speaker pro-tem while Republicans begin the messy business of replacing McCarthy.
Shocking as the ousting was, the first time in the 230-year history of the House that a Speaker has been deposed, it was not surprising.
Their narrow win in the midterm elections for the House a year ago gave the Republicans a wafer-thin majority: it takes only five members of the party to side with House Democrats to defeat the Republican leadership. Sure enough, slightly more than a handful of populist rebels (eight) voted to remove McCarthy after he defied them in passing, just in time, budget legislation to keep the federal government funded and open, if only for the next 45 days.
To believe the various justifications that the rebels made for their actions requires a Rubik’s Cube of a mind. They insisted that McCarthy had been insufficiently aggressive in coming up with ways to cut the government’s enormous fiscal deficit. But they actually joined Democrats last week to reject a measure that would have cut government spending much more deeply than the measure that finally passed. They claim he had conceded too much to Democrats - but then happily sided with Democrats to depose him.
The real reason for their rebellion is simpler and more obvious. They wanted to precipitate a government shutdown, the ultimate act of political nihilism. Nothing gives them more satisfaction than nothing: the spectacle of a government not functioning, a country not governed; the substitution of chaos for order. They preferred to engineer a complete paralysis of government to voting for a measure that would have reduced the size of a functioning government. Their art is that of the arsonist; their craft that of the wrecking ball. Don’t ask them what they plan to build in the ruins - who cares?
The most immediate and serious consequence of all this is the imperilling of any more US military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Support for Ukraine is dwindling rapidly in the Republican Party and the battle over the speakership marks a critical turning point. The bill that was eventually passed last weekend was stripped of an additional dollars 24 billion for Kyiv that Biden had asked for. That expenditure is now in serious doubt.
First, the Republicans will now be preoccupied with their election for a new Speaker, a process that will consume energy and a great deal of the 45 days before the next government funding deadline falls.
More importantly, as the contest for the speakership unfolds it’s likely that the rebels - joined by a sizeable number of other Republicans - will condition their support for the winning candidate on the promise of no more aid for Ukraine.
Although there is probably still a majority in the House for additional assistance, given the support of almost all Democrats and a minority of Republicans, it will be up to the new Speaker to decide whether a bill appropriating the funds is presented. He may decide he can’t risk it.
There may be good reasons now for questioning the value of additional support for a war without an obvious end - but that is not why the rebels oppose Ukraine assistance. They have been against it from the start. Their opposition is another example of their nihilism at work. It is not a foreign policy choice. It is simply a gesture - a self-satisfying one - of rejection of the American political establishment. If tearing it down means building up the nation’s enemies, then so be it.
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