Capital may yet feel the full force of Russian invasion

Kyiv has to remain Putin’s priority target. The bulk of his troops have been distracted elsewhere.

US Army Black Hawk helicopters on standby at an airfield near Mielec, Poland. Targeting NATO’s arms supply line into Ukraine from Poland would be a high-risk move for Moscow. Picture: Getty Images

The first US Army Abrams battle tanks entered Baghdad 17 days after the American-led invasion of Iraq began on March 19, 2003.

American soldiers and Marines in armoured personnel carriers and tanks powered their way to the capital, bypassing other potential urban targets to reach the seat of power to topple Saddam Hussein.

Vladimir Putin will have studied the rapid advance of America’s fighting troops, led by the US 3rd Infantry Division, when assessing the options for invading Ukraine.

However, Kyiv has yet to feel the full power of the Russian invading forces.

Kyiv has to remain Putin’s priority target. Apart from indiscriminate shelling and sabotage missions by Spetsnaz special forces in the capital, the bulk of his troops have been distracted elsewhere. With Russian air power having failed to make a significant impact, it is likely Putin’s generals will turn to long-range artillery bombardment.

If this is to be the next phase, Kyiv will be hit by intensive shelling. Russia has an array of howitzers including the Pion self-propelled 203mm artillery piece, which has a range of about 50km.

The Ukrainian general staff say the Russians are setting up a forward base for attack helicopters near Ivankiv, about 70km northwest of Kyiv.

Odessa, the biggest port on the Black Sea, also has to be on Putin’s priority list. Thousands of Russian naval infantry troops are on amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea and appear to be poised to launch an operation.

Russian forces have also been seen advancing north towards the Kaniv hydroelectric power plant, a key to providing energy supplies to the region, about 160km south of Kyiv. Putin has already shown that he wants his troops to gain control of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

Targeting NATO’s arms supply line into Ukraine from Poland would be a high-risk move because of the potential for clashes with alliance fighter jets which are operating close to the Ukrainian border. However, Putin’s plans have been severely hit by NATO anti-tank and anti-air shoulder-launched missile systems that have arrived in convoys from Poland and other alliance countries on the border.

The longer the war goes on, the better armed the Ukrainian military will be.

The Times