Can Storm Shadow missiles slow the Russian march on Ukraine?
Russia now faces a Ukraine armed with two advanced western weapons that can fly over its border and reach targets spread across a huge area.
The first launching of the Anglo-French Storm Shadow cruise missile against targets inside Russia has brought Britain into a more direct confrontation with Moscow.
On Tuesday, the Kyiv government wasted no time in launching American-made long-range ATACMs missiles over the border into Russia once President Biden had given his approval, reversing his policy after months of pleading by President Zelensky.
The missiles hit a weapons depot in the Bryansk region, 70 miles (112km) from the border and 235 miles southwest of the Russian capital. Hours later, a British-supplied missile was fired towards a similar target.
Sir Keir Starmer has been careful to avoid confirming whether he too had given Zelensky permission to use Storm Shadow in attacks in Russia. But the evidence of long-range strikes indicates that the UK government followed the switch in policy adopted by Washington.
Atacms (army tactical missile systems) and Storm Shadow (the French version is called Scalp) are two of the most deadly and effective weapons supplied by the US-led 50-nation coalition, which has been arming and supporting the Kyiv government since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.
However, it has taken more than 1000 days for the US and UK to give Zelensky authority to use the weapons in attacks inside Russia.
The 155-mile-range cruise missile has been used by Ukraine in numerous attacks against Russian targets in Crimea and in eastern provinces since the weapon was first delivered last year, but always on short-range missions.
Storm Shadow has a 990lb (450kg) warhead designed to penetrate hardened military sites, such as ammunition depots, airbase storage facilities, radar installations and naval ports.
In Ukraine, the cruise missile has been carried by the Soviet Sukhoi Su-24 aircraft, but before its operational use by the Ukrainian air force, it was supplied to the RAF for Tornado GR4s and Eurofighter Typhoons. It was first launched from a Typhoon on operations against Islamic State in Syria in March 2021, but it was fired from a Tornado GR4 as far back as 2003 in Iraq.
Storm Shadow is equipped with “fire-and-forget” technology, with autonomous guidance. It was designed to hit targets with enhanced accuracy, with all the details of the target fed into a computer.
Because it is a cruise missile, as opposed to a ballistic one, it is subsonic but can creep up on the target at a low altitude, rising only in the final part of the journey to give maximum penetration power as it plunges downwards close to the speed of sound. It also has stealth technology built in, making it difficult for enemy radars to detect its approach.
Storm Shadow can make a difference on the battlefield because of its accuracy and penetration capabilities.
However, the missile is in demand among allies, and Ukraine has been given only limited supplies. This could hamper Kyiv’s hopes of causing significant and long-lasting damage to key military facilities inside Russia.
Storm Shadow is air-launched, meaning that the Ukrainian pilots will have to adopt skilled manoeuvre tactics to evade Russian air-defence systems.
Both the US and the UK have given authority for Kyiv to use these two weapon systems to their maximum range. This poses a challenge to Russian air defences.
Previously, Russia’s main concern within its own borders was to spot and try to shoot down Ukraine’s long-range drones, which despite becoming increasingly capable have never caused significant damage. Now Russia faces two advanced western weapons that can fly over the border and reach targets spread across a huge area. It has been estimated that about 245 potential military targets could be within reach of Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles.
Russia has advanced and effective air-defence systems but they cannot be everywhere. Storm Shadow, with its ability to fly along a low-terrain path, is regarded as highly resilient. But on July 9 last year, a Storm Shadow missile was shot down by Russian air defences in southern Ukraine.
However, the inaugural use of both Atacms and Storm Shadow inside Russia has demonstrated to Moscow that Ukraine’s western allies remain determined to supply Kyiv with the systems necessary to defend the country even if this means lifting the longstanding ban on their use against Russia itself.
The Kyiv government knows that it has two months in which to make maximum use of these long-range weapons before the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House in January, when continued backing of Ukraine will come under question.
Russia is also fully aware of the Washington timetable and will no doubt retaliate with strikes against Ukraine that will ensure the grimmest of winters for the Ukrainian people.
The authority from Washington and London to extend the range of attacks into Russia comes at a time when Russian troops have been making slow but significant progress in eastern Ukraine.
Russian units supported by 10,000 North Korean soldiers have also been hitting back at Ukraine’s occupying forces in Kursk in western Russia. Some of the Ukrainian troops who launched an incursion in August have been driven back.
Russia has also remorselessly attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power blackouts in many cities as winter sets in.
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