Brussels keeps Boris Johnson guessing on Brexit deal

Boris Johnson’s chances of a new Brexit deal are hanging by a thread after EU leaders withheld approval for formal negotiations.

Boris Johnson is within touching distance of winning House of Commons approval for a Bexit deal if he can get agreement in Brussels. Picture: AFP

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chances of a new Brexit deal are hanging by a thread after EU leaders withheld approval for formal negotiations on his plans for an alternative to the Irish backstop.

Mr Johnson set out proposals that would in effect keep Northern Ireland in the EU single market for all goods while following UK Customs rules. He said the compromise allowed a “meaningful Brexit” without the need for physical checks on the border.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that Mr Johnson’s proposals did not “fully meet the agreed objectives” of the original guarantee against a hard border on the island of Ireland but did not reject them entirely.

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker was cool but not dismissive as he said that among “positive advances” there were “problematic points”, including how the arrangements would be policed.

While other EU leaders gave a generally negative reaction, endorsements by the Democratic Unionist Party and the European Research Group of hardline ­Eurosceptic Tory MPs put Mr Johnson within touching distance of winning House of Commons approval for the deal if he can get agreement in Brussels.

In his letter to Mr Juncker setting out the proposals, which he called “a fair and decent compromise”, Mr Johnson said that “time is now very short”. He spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and was to call other EU leaders to sell the deal.

Mr Johnson must now wait for the outcome of talks between EU leaders to know whether they are willing to enter formal negotiations before the European Council meets in two weeks.

Downing Street figures said that unless negotiators were in the “tunnel” of intensive talks by the weekend there was no prospect of agreement. They said that in that case Mr Johnson may not attend the council meeting, focusing instead on no-deal preparations.

The credibility of Mr Johnson’s threat to take Britain out of the EU without a deal has been damaged by the Benn act, which compels him to seek an extension to article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty if he cannot reach a deal acceptable to parliament.

The EU must weigh up the risks associated with entering formal talks over complex new ­arrangements for the Irish border against the risks of rejecting the proposal. This could result in Mr Johnson winning a general election and returning on a strengthened hard-Brexit mandate. Polls showing that he has a double-digit lead over Labour have ­increased his leverage in Brussels.

Objections to the plans centred on proposals to test “consent” for EU regulations in Northern Ireland every four years, thought to be a DUP red line. Some also fear that separating Customs and regulatory checks will be unworkable, and there is scepticism over Britain’s claims Customs checks will not require new infrastructure.

The EU sees the plan as creating a breach in the single market’s integrity by opening the floodgates to smuggling via Northern Ireland. “This cannot be his last plan,” a source close to the negotiations said. “It is unworkable to disassociate Customs from the regulatory regime. There is no point in even considering a time limit on something that is unworkable.”

For now, European negotiators are unwilling to enter technical talks. However, DUP leader ­Arlene Foster endorsed Mr Johnson’s deal as “sensible and balanced” after her party shifted its red lines over regulatory alignment.

Hardline Eurosceptics also ­indicated they were softening their position. ERG chairman Steve Baker called Mr Johnson’s plan “fantastic”. Three Labour MPs said they were prepared to vote for the deal, despite opposition from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Mr Johnson would need to win over only 11 Tory rebels or Labour MPs to get his deal through the Commons.

The Times