Be cautious, urges Johnson as Covid predicted to surge

Boris Johnson defends decision to lift Covid restrictions, while leading scientist predicts Britain’s cases could reach 200,000 a day.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has defended his decision to lift England’s Covid restrictions, saying it is ‘the right moment’, while a poll has revealed most voters don’t back unlocking. Picture: AFP

Britain could have 200,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-August, a leading scientific Adviser has warned, as Boris Johnson urged the public to “please, please be cautious”.

The prime minister defended his decision to lift restrictions in England today (Monday) despite warnings that it could lead to a surge of hospital admissions and overwhelm the National Health Service.

He also faced embarrassment after trying, along with Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the exchequer, to avoid self-isolation rules when he was pinged by the NHS Covid-19 app as a contact of Sajid Javid, the health secretary, who has tested positive.

Downing Street claimed Mr Johnson need not self-isolate because he had decided to take part in a trial, open only to certain parts of the public sector, that would allow him to take regular tests instead. Just two and a half hours later, after fierce criticism from Labour and ridicule on social media, Johnson admitted that it was better to “stick to the same rules” as everyone else.

Last night (Sunday) Downing Street and the Cabinet Office said they had pulled out of the pilot scheme and no more ministers or officials would benefit from it. Senior government figures are privately nervous about the next few weeks amid signs that infections are so far at the higher end of projections.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said that cases would almost certainly reach 100,000 a day, with the potential for double that.

Appearing on the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show, he also warned that half a million more people could develop long Covid. “I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable. I think it’s almost certain we’ll get to 1,000 hospitalisations per day,” he said. “The real question is, do we get to double that or even higher? We could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day, but it’s much less certain.”

Prof Neil Ferguson says 100,000 Covid cases a day is "almost inevitable" as England eases restrictions on Monday#Marrhttps://t.co/POlbdX8vhvpic.twitter.com/OiDenl8mlY

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 18, 2021

Yesterday (Sunday) there were 48,161 confirmed cases in the UK and a further 25 deaths, bringing the total to 128,708.

Polling for The Times reveals that the government is out of step with the public on the decision to reopen. Research by YouGov found that 31 per cent of voters thought it was the right thing to do, compared with 55 per cent who thought it was wrong. No 10 will also be concerned by the number of voters who said that if cases rose to levels at which the NHS could not cope it would be the fault of the government rather than the public’s behaviour.

In a video message recorded at Chequers, the prime minister’s country residence, where he is isolating until next Monday, Johnson defended the decision to unlock but urged caution.

“If we don’t do it now we’ve got to ask ourselves, when will we ever do it? This is the right moment,” he said. “But we’ve got to do it cautiously. We’ve got to remember that this virus is sadly still out there. Cases are rising, we can see the extreme contagiousness of the Delta variant.

Like so many people I've been pinged by NHS Test and Trace as I have been in contact with someone with COVID-19, and I will be self-isolating until Monday 26th July. pic.twitter.com/X57gDpwDqe

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) July 18, 2021

“So please, please, please be cautious. Go forward tomorrow into the next step with all the right prudence and respect for other people and the risks that the disease continues to present.”

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, described the lifting of restrictions as a reckless mistake. “The prime minister is essentially putting the whole nation into a car, pressing the accelerator and taking the seatbelt off,” he said.

Reckless, incompetent and dangerous.

The Conservatives’ chaos is a recipe for more needless deaths.

They u-turned today – they should do the same on masks and other essential measures.https://t.co/VNXf8C1UJ9

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) July 18, 2021

The government set out details of a scheme to allow frontline NHS staff to keep working. From today (Monday) doctors and nurses will be allowed to continue if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19 as long as they take a PCR test and regular lateral flow tests. It will operate case-by-case, depending on the situation locally.

There were also warnings of transport chaos because of the number of workers isolating across train, bus and shipping services. The rail operator Northern faced widespread problems yesterday (Sunday), with customers being asked to avoid routes to Sheffield, Doncaster, Leeds and York owing to cancellations.

In London the Metropolitan underground line had to close on Saturday.

Waste collection has also been affected, with cancellations in Liverpool, Reading, Leeds, Exmouth, Birmingham, Bristol, Coventry and Norfolk.

The Times