Boris Johnson took his morning dip and party chairman plunged in the knife
The British PM was caught by surprise when the chairman of the Conservative Party quit.
Boris Johnson had been for a dawn swim in the outdoor pool of his hotel in Kigali, Rwanda, when the call came. Oliver Dowden, the chairman of the Conservative Party, told the British Prime Minister that he had decided to quit after last week’s two catastrophic by-election results.
Johnson was taken by surprise. He was said to have been drawing up plans to sack Dowden in a reshuffle, but had not expected to be beaten to the punch.
Dowden wanted out. A loyalist whose support was pivotal in Johnson’s election as Tory leader in 2019, he was disenchanted after his demotion from culture secretary last year.
“He could see the way the wind was blowing,” a friend said. “He felt poorly treated. He’s a traditional Tory, he didn’t like the tax rises, he didn’t like the general incompetence of No, 10. He felt he shouldn’t have to suffer the indignity of being poorly treated and publicly briefed against.”
His five-paragraph resignation letter was, in its own way, quietly devastating. Tory voters had been “distressed and disappointed by recent events”, Dowden said – a reference to the parties scandal – and he shared their feelings. “We cannot carry on with business as usual. Somebody must take responsibility and I have concluded that, in these circumstances, it would not be right for me to remain in office.”
Dowden’s implication was that Johnson should take responsibility.
While publicly respectful, Johnson was privately said to be seething. One ally said that Dowden was a “Cameroon” – a reference to the fact he was David Cameron’s deputy chief of staff – and suggested that he was never a good fit for the Johnson project.
One cabinet minister said: “He’s been on suicide watch for ages. He jumped before he was pushed. He’s an incredibly ineffective minister, he was fundamentally risk-averse, but nobody will say that. I thought the Prime Minister’s letter was very generous.”
Dowden’s resignation came 90 minutes before he was due to appear on the morning broadcast round. Three ministers – Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, Home Secretary Priti Patel and Business Minister Paul Scully offered to step in.
At 6am Johnson held a call with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and other aides. Sunak had not seen the news that Dowden, his close friend, had quit. Sunak made it clear on Twitter that he was staying in his post but paid tribute to his “colleague and friend”.
Cabinet ministers believe that Dowden’s departure was partly connected to Sunak’s own travails. Where once the Chancellor was considered the outright favourite to succeed Johnson, his star has waned over allegations about his tax affairs.
“Oliver had very clearly tied his cart to Rishi’s wagon,” one minister said. “It left him nowhere and adrift. In better times, once the cost of living crisis is over, Rishi will be a contender but now is not that moment.”
Another cabinet minister said: “It sounds like he’s decided to go and start running Rishi’s campaign.”
After his early morning calls Johnson began ringing cabinet ministers to make sure they were on side along with Chris Heaton-Harris, his chief whip. The calls reassured him that a cabinet revolt was not in the offing. “It’s not the wheels coming off the bus, it’s a couple of nuts,” Johnson said.
Privately Johnson is said to have cut a more subdued figure. He attended a state banquet held for Commonwealth leaders and dignitaries in Kigali.
As Johnson and his wife Carrie were lining up to enter, Andrew Mitchell, a former international development secretary who was one of the first senior Tories to demand he quit, came up behind them. “I’m right behind you, Prime Minister – so you can feel suitably reassured,” he told him. Carrie is said to have laughed but not her husband.
As much as the by-election defeats were expected, the scale of the Liberal Democrat victory in Tiverton & Honiton in particular shocked many backbenchers. The Lib Dems overturned a 24,239 majority.
Johnson ascribed defeat in part to the cost of living. On the ground Johnson’s personal conduct during the parties scandal resonated with voters. Even Neil Parish, the former Tory MP for Tiverton & Honiton who quit after he was seen watching pornography on his mobile phone in the Commons, said it was a question of honour.
“A lot of people think, ‘We like Neil, we thought he was very foolish but he did the honourable thing – what about the PM,’ ” he said. “[Johnson] has many good qualities, the trouble is he can’t just keep living in a parallel universe, there has to be reality.”
In Wakefield Tories said blame for losing the seat to Labour rested firmly with Conservative Party headquarters and its decision to select Imran Khan as the candidate. Khan triggered the by-election after being convicted of sexually assaulting a teenage boy.
Johnson is now mulling over his reshuffle, with at least three ministers said to be at risk.
Colleagues urged him to tread softly. “The problem for No.10 is if this accelerates the need for a reshuffle then I think that increases the chance of other ministers resigning. Some people will think my number is up so I’ve got to go now,” one cabinet minister said.
“Whatever way you cut the reshuffle cake, the situation is worse for the PM than when he started, whatever he does. If you’re going to do one you’ve got to do it now, because the longer you leave it the more difficult it gets.”
The timing of the reshuffle is an open question. Johnson’s trip to Rwanda is followed by visits to Germany for the G7 and Spain for NATO, meaning he will have been out of the country for nine days at a precarious time for his leadership. Most ministers are still expecting a reshuffle before the summer recess.
The next few weeks will be pivotal for Johnson.
The Times
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