Angela Merkel party fears power is slipping away after 16 years

Angela Merkel’s party may be ousted from government for the first time in 16 years this northern autumn.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Chancellery in Berlin. Picture: AFP

Angela Merkel’s party may be ousted from government for the first time in 16 years this northern autumn as opponents seek to capitalise on an electoral breakthrough and construct a rival coalition.

Senior figures on the centre right said the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was in danger of losing power after a drubbing in two states where it was once a dominant force. Mrs Merkel, 66, has governed Germany for 11 of the past 15 years in a loveless but generally stable “grand coalition” with the SPD. In the northern autumn, however, the Chancellor will stand down and politicians on both sides of her coalition have ruled out its return, opening an unpredictable box of options for the next government.

The party’s two closest rivals, the Greens and the left-of-centre Social Democrats (SPD), said the results showed it was possible to build a national alliance that could squeeze out the CDU after the general election in September. The emboldened opposition is now examining plans for a three-party alliance that could command a majority of seats in the next Bundestag.

One possibility would be a “traffic light” pact between the Greens, the SPD and the fiscally conservative Free Democrats (FDP); named after the respective green, red and yellow colours of the three parties.

The sense of crisis in the CDU has been compounded by the heavy defeats it suffered on Sunday in two southwestern states, Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. It lost both by a margin of eight points and its lead in national polls is beginning to decline.

Baden-Wurttemberg, the bigger and wealthier of the two, has long been CDU territory. It has a large rural population interspersed with a number of affluent cities, with one of the strongest skilled-manufacturing bases in Europe, including the headquarters of Porsche and Daimler.

The CDU held the region from 1949 to 2011, when it lost to the Green party under Winfried Kretschmann, 72, a charismatic conservative who has cultivated close ties to industry. On Sunday the CDU won only 24 per cent of the vote.

The party had also nurtured hopes of winning Rhineland-­Palatinate, the heart of the German wine sector, which has been under SPD control since 1991. Polls suggested a clear CDU win but it slumped to 28 per cent, a historic low. In both cases it lost slightly more voters to the left than to the right.

On Monday the party’s top brass blamed the defeats on a sleaze scandal in which five MPs have been accused of profiteering during the pandemic. Paul Ziemiak, 35, CDU general secretary, blamed the “undignified behaviour and shamelessness of a few MPs”. Other figures, however, worry that the real problem may be deeper. Markus Soder, 54, chief minister of Bavaria and leader of the CDU’s local sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), ­described the results as a “hefty blow to the heart” of the German centre right.

There are growing doubts about the suitability of the CDU’s new leader, Armin Laschet, 60, to run for the chancellorship. The joint candidate for the CDU and the CSU — known collectively as the Union — will be chosen at some point between Easter and May 23. The parties may opt instead for Mr Soder, Mr Laschet’s more popular rival.

Mr Soder said on Monday it was clear that the Union could be toppled in September and that Mrs Merkel’s successor would not automatically be a conservative.

The Times