Abortion v migration: which will decide the US election?
The battle lines for the presidential contest are being drawn, with Joe Biden pitching himself as the defender of women’s rights, and Donald Trump as protector of the border.
Donald Trump brought his apocalyptic message on illegal immigration to the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin last week, where he tested out a new three-word catchphrase: “Biden’s border bloodbath.”
His Democratic rival countered by launching a new ad reminding voters how Trump proclaimed he was “proud” to have overturned Roe v Wade, the 49-year legal guarantee of access to abortion, resulting in bans or strict limitations on reproductive rights in 21 Republican-controlled states.
The campaign battle lines are being drawn and the 2024 election is shaping up as abortion v the border. Which will prove the more effective rallying cry?
Both have a proven track record: Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 owed much to an earlier three-word slogan, “Build the wall” – constructing a barrier along the US-Mexico frontier. At his rally last week in Green Bay, Wisconsin, he spoke of how he suffered in 2020 from the fact immigration was not a major issue “because we fixed it”.
Roe v Wade was reversed in June 2022 by the US Supreme Court thanks to three conservative judges appointed by Trump. Democrats harnessed outrage to outperform expectations in the midterm elections that November and in a string of state contests, including swing states and Republican ones.
Unlawful immigration and reproductive rights also provide the candidates with alarming case studies, such as the murders of Georgia student Laken Riley, 22, allegedly by a Venezuelan man who was in the US illegally, and of 25-year-old Ruby Garcia in Michigan, allegedly by a Mexican man previously deported in 2020.
Biden’s speeches feature victims of abortion bans such as Kate Cox, who was refused treatment in Texas when her foetus was found to have a fatal condition. At least 25 million women live in states where it has become much harder to get an abortion.
Neither Biden nor Trump is viewed positively by the persuadable voters they most need to reach – those who want to vote but are repelled by the president’s age and his opponent’s boorishness.
Both sides are hoping their top issue can go beyond motivating their core vote and reach some of the floating voters.
The most sought-after of these, with the proven power to swing the election, are suburban women, who were put off by Hillary Clinton in 2016 but came out for Biden in 2020. Trump frames his immigration message as a threat to suburbs across the US. “You know, the suburban housewives actually like Donald Trump. You know why? Because I’m the one that’s gonna keep them safe,” Trump said in Michigan.
Biden casts abortion as symptomatic of a wider Republican threat to women’s rights, including access to contraception, saying to Congress: “My God, what freedoms will you take away next? Clearly, those bragging about overturning Roe v Wade have no clue about the power of women in America.”
In a recent NBC News poll, Biden was winning women by ten percentage points over Trump (50 per cent to 40 per cent). Among suburban women, Biden’s lead dropped to six points (49 to 43), with almost level pegging among white suburban women (Trump 47, Biden 46). Biden’s latest campaign ad, featuring a video clip of Trump saying he is proud of overturning Roe v Wade, concludes with the president saying: “Donald Trump doesn’t trust women. I do.”
The election will be won and lost in a handful of swing states, only one of which – Arizona – is actually on the southern border. The biggest battleground prizes of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are far away, hence Trump’s wider points about drug smuggling and “migrant crime” as well as the cost to taxpayers.
Can Biden neutralise Trump’s immigration appeal? Trump handed him an opportunity in February by killing a bipartisan Senate deal to improve border security that took months to negotiate. “He’d rather weaponise the issue than actually solve it,” Biden said.
But the president is struggling to pin much blame for border chaos on Trump. In December, a new all-time monthly record was set for migrants apprehended at the southern frontier, with images of large groups entering into the US all over social media.
Kamala Harris, the vice-president, is also tarnished by the failure to manage the situation, having been asked by Biden in 2021 to tackle the root causes of immigration. The general impression of chaos has been firmly set, and another year like 2023 would remind voters of how badly Biden ran things.
Can Trump neutralise Biden on abortion? He has promised to make a clear statement of his position on federal legislation this coming week, after rebuking Republican authorities for draconian restrictions and suggesting he likes the idea of a 15-week limit. Trump has called the six-week ban passed in Florida and signed by its governor – and his former Republican primary rival – Ron DeSantis, “a terrible thing and a terrible mistake”.
What of the economy, the issue that is usually fundamental in deciding US elections? Both sides are nervous about making it their rallying cry.
For Biden, that’s because positive data such as the lowest unemployment rate for 54 years, the highest point for the stock market and lower inflation are not yet resonating as a success with voters. Every poll rates Trump as better at handling the economy.
For Trump, who used to boast regularly while president about the record stock market and having the highest employment rates – before Covid-19 hit – it is a risk to make the economy his top issue when the summer could bring more of a feel-good factor, with expected cuts in interest rates.
Instead, both campaigns are stoking fear of the other guy winning – and destroying America.
The Times
