Syria’s Bashar al-Assad can no longer rely on his dodgy mates in Russia and Iran if he wants to live

Members of the Syrian armed opposition forces stand in front of the Ancient Castle of Aleppo after seizing control of most parts of Syria's second largest city. Picture: Getty Images

The rebels who have reignited Syria’s civil war with a stunning takeover of the country’s largest city chose their timing perfectly.

While the rest of the world was busy watching the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, they knew their old enemy, the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, was becoming friendless and vulnerable.

Why? Because the dark forces that propped up Assad’s murderous regime during his country’s civil war – Hezbollah, Russia and Iran – are now too busy fighting their own battles against democracies to help their fellow despot.

So anti-Assad fighters from an Islamist militia coalition known as HDS chose this moment to launch a surprise attack on Aleppo, leading to the city of two million people falling to them in less than 72 hours.

Sweeping through the region on foot, motorbikes or trucks mounted with machine guns, the rebels captured towns and cities across three provinces – Aleppo, Idlib and Hama – while being cheered on by locals who hate Assad for his slaughter of his own people during the 2011-18 civil war.

The offensive has not only severely embarrassed Assad but will force his military to launch a massive offensive to retake Aleppo which his forces took from the rebels at great cost in 2016. The uprising threatens to engulf Syria in another major war and force the dictator to once again fight for his own survival.

It shows how the flames of unrest which began with the Hamas massacre of Israelis on October 7 last year continue to spread across the Middle East, with Syria now joining Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen as war zones that have flowed from Hamas’s terrorism.

Anti-government fighters brandish their guns as they parade through the streets of Aleppo. Picture: AFP

During the Syrian civil war, Assad narrowly defeated the anti-government rebels aligned against him only because of the help of Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. Assad managed to retain power in that conflict, which killed more than 500,000 Syrians. And although anti-government forces still control around 30 per cent of the country, the fighting had mostly ended by 2018.

But Hezbollah, whose fighters helped Assad repel armed rebel groups in the civil war, withdrew its own fighters from Syria back to Lebanon after October 7 to fight Israel. That terror group was last week forced to sign a ceasefire after its fighters and commanders were smashed by Israel’s offensive.

Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard also played a key role in saving Assad, is now preoccupied with its own security after two ­tit-for-tat military strikes against ­Israel this year and the decimation of its prized terror-proxy Hez­bollah in Lebanon.

Anti-government fighters pose for a picture on a tank on the road leading to Maaret al-Numan in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province. Picture: AFP

And Russia, which helped save Assad by dispatching troops and warplanes to Syria in 2015, is now engaged in an all-consuming war against Ukraine.

So Assad’s allies will be unable to help him in a second civil war anywhere near as much as they did in the first.

The anti-government rebels in Syria are themselves divided into different factions. The HDS, which took over Aleppo from its stronghold in the far northwest of the country, enjoys Turkish backing and was previously aligned with the terror group al-Qa’ida.

A general view of the destruction following an unidentified air strike on Aleppo, Syria, after it was captured by anti-regime armed groups. Picture: Getty Images

Meanwhile, the northeast of Syria is largely controlled by US-backed Kurdish militia. Although their ideologies are different, each group shares a common desire to topple the Assad regime, which used chemical weapons against its own people during the war. There are also hundreds of US troops based in eastern Syria.

Assad now faces the enormous challenge of retaking Aleppo and snuffing out this rebel advance quickly before it gathers any more momentum.

But this time, he will have to do it largely without the dodgy mates who helped him survive last time.