Just when Donald Trump’s impeachment trial seemed entirely predictable, the maverick John Bolton has up-ended the script by publicly contradicting the president on what unfolded behind closed doors on Ukraine.
The claims by Bolton, who was sacked by Trump as national security adviser, have injected uncertainty into the trial by increasing the likelihood that a majority of Senators will vote for new witnesses, including Bolton.
Bolton claims in his new book that Trump told him in August that he wanted to continue freezing $US391 million in US security aid to Ukraine until that government helped with investigations into Democrats, including Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
This directly contradicts the president and his legal team who insist that there was never any so-called quid pro quo between the freezing of the aid and an investigation into the Bidens.
Bolton’s claim is consistent with other testimony given during the House impeachment inquiry in which even Mr Trump’s own supporter, Ambassador Gordon Sondland, ‘presumed’ that there was a link between the provision of aid and a Biden investigation.
But the president’s lawyers have pointed out that despite the weight of circumstantial evidence against the president, there was no smoking gun witness who heard directly from Trump about the link between US aid and the Bidens.
Bolton is now claiming to be that smoking gun witness. This puts moderate Republicans is a difficult position. They have professed that they want a fair trial and are potentially open to new witnesses so it would be hard for them to justify publicly voting against hearing new information that goes to the heart of the impeachment charges against Trump.
Trump is understandably wary about Bolton testifying given that Trump sacked his then national security adviser. Bolton left the White House on bad terms with the president and is not shy about causing controversy.
Senators will vote on new witnesses later this week with Democrats needing four Republicans to side with them in order to pass the motion. Moderate Republicans say Bolton’s claims, made in a draft copy of his new book, make it more likely they would vote for new witnesses. But any vote to call Bolton may lead to a tit-for-tat vote by Republicans to call Joe or Hunter Biden, blowing the timeline for the trial out by weeks and injecting even more uncertainty into it.
If Bolton does testify, it is unlikely that his evidence would change the big picture for Trump.
Even if more Republicans came to accept Bolton’s claims that Trump withheld aid for an investigation into the Bidens, that does not mean that they consider such actions impeachable. In other words, there seems little doubt the president would be acquitted easily regardless of whether Senators think there was a quid pro quo or not.
But Bolton is an unpredictable character and if he does appear, then who knows what he would say. That alone would be enough to make the White House nervous.
Cameron Stewart is also US Contributor for Sky News Australia
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