Polling has Jacinda Ardern set for a shift further to the left

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s is on track to win her second term in government at Saturday’s general election.

Jacinda Ardern addresses supporters in Auckland at the weekend. Picture: Getty Images

New Zealand Prime Minister ­Jacinda Ardern’s is on track to win her second term in government at Saturday’s general election but, according to the latest polls, will likely need the help of the Green Party — a current ­coalition partner — to secure a parliamentary majority.

A Labour-Green government would be decidedly more willing and able to lean further left than the present coalition, which also includes New Zealand First.

NZ First, led by Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, has sought to curb any perceived progressive policy excesses, but is now flailing in the polls and its political fortunes look more terminal by the day.

Largely on the back of broad support for the government’s COVID-19 public safety and economic recovery measures, and a popular Prime Minister, Labour is reaping a strong and sustained electoral windfall well ahead of the conservative National Party led by Judith Collins.

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll showed Labour ­securing 47 per cent support to National’s 32 per cent.

Though Labour has broken the 50 per cent mark in other polls, it is more likely to require the 6 per cent the Greens are polling to form government.

Even if Labour could mathematically govern alone, it still may seek out the Greens to provide a more comfortable parliamentary buffer and present a sense of continuity that Ms Ardern has campaigned on.

Mrs Collins has boosted ­National’s appeal since ­assuming the leadership on July 14.

However, the experienced Mrs Collins has not had a lot of time to take the shine off Ms Ardern and her efforts to portray National as a more competent manager of the recovery were critically impeded by a SNZ4bn miscalculation in the party’s fiscal policy.

Judith Collins during a street walk in Auckland last week. Picture: Getty Images

The Greens too have had setbacks on the campaign trail, including the ill-received idea of co-leader James Shaw to spend millions of public funds on a private eco school in Taranaki. Yet, there appears sufficient voter loyalty to the green political brand to provide for the party’s survival.

The only other party to consistently poll over the 5 per cent threshold necessary to win a list seat in parliament — aside from winning an electoral seat — is the libertarian ACT Party. ACT secured 8 per cent in the last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll and is experiencing a political revival under the leadership of Auckland-based MP David Seymour.

ACT’s economic positions make it a natural governing partner for National. However, their combined strength is not currently enough to secure government and there’s little time for centre-right to close the gap.

With NZ First’s prospects of winning a seat remote and the party struggling to breach 2 per cent support across all polling, the next parliament is looking unlikely to feature Mr Peters, bringing the career curtain done on the 75-year old, one of New Zealand’s most dominant public figures over the last four decades.

NZ First has struggled to deliver on its promise it’s the only minor party capable of providing an ideological check to government. It has also suffered from the recent announcement by the country’s Serious Fraud Office that two members of the NZ First Foundation have been charged with fraudulent behaviour in an electoral funding investigation.

With advance voting already under way many voters are unlikely to be swayed in the final week of electioneering.

In reality, much of the New Zealand electorate probably made up their mind weeks ago and is suffering election fatigue after Ms Ardern moved the election day from the original September 19 date in response to country’s then-escalating COVID-19 problem.