NZ election: Jacinda Ardern set to play a steady hand after Labour victory

New Zealand’s progressive movement was the biggest winner at the election but the Labour leader may keep governing from the centre.

Jacinda Ardern greets supporters at Auckland's Crave Cafe on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

New Zealand’s progressive movement was the biggest winner at the weekend election as the country witnessed a leftward rally on the back of the emphatic win by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party and a solid electoral return for the Greens.

The biggest loser was the centre-right, after the opposition ­National Party was overwhelmed by a red tide that swept the land on Saturday.

The large weekend swing ­towards the left resulted in ­Labour pulling 49.1 per cent of the total vote. That’s the party’s biggest share of votes in the last 50 years. It gave Labour 64 seats in the 120-member parliament, three more than needed to form a majority government.

Ms Ardern on Sunday said she would form a government “in the next two or three weeks”. She refused to be drawn on whether she would govern alone in her second term and has not ruled out continuing a coalition with the Greens, an idea embraced by the minor party.

“New Zealanders want a strong and truly progressive government,” Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson told ebullient supporters on Saturday night.

The Greens skilfully rode the progressive wave. It secured 10 seats and won its first electorate race since 1999, with 26-year-old Chloe Swarbrick’s surprise win in the Auckland Central seat. Ms Swarbrick’s path to victory was paved with an enthusiastic campaign ground game and a high number of young voters in the electorate.

National, led by Judith Collins, was predictably crushed on Saturday. The party won 26.8 per cent support, providing just 35 seats — the party’s worst result since 2002 as Labour flipped 15 seats held by National MPs, including a number of rural strongholds.

The scale of those Labour gains even surprised Ms Ardern. In her victory speech, she noted Labour’s support across the country — in urban and rural electorate — “in seats they hoped for, but didn’t expect”, she said.

In her concession speech, Mrs Collins pledged to lead a “robust opposition”.

The strong showing by the ­libertarian ACT party will give some comfort to conservative New Zealanders. In a positive night for the minor party, leader and sitting MP David Seymour will now be able to expand his ranks in par­liament with nine new MPs.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters was also a victim of that political massacre. As forecast, his New Zealand First party failed to get back into parliament after returning 2.7 per cent of the vote. The 75-year-old was typically coquettish in declaring what the loss means for his party and his own future. “You’ll all have to wait and see,” he said to supporters at party election headquarters.

But the country has probably seen the final curtain call for the most recognisable figure in New Zealand’s political history.

Following her triumph, Ms Ardern has a lot of political capital to cash — if she so chooses.

Yet, there are reasons to suggest she might not seek to deliver the sort of rapid and substantial change to the country many in her party believe they have earned. And as much as the Greens believe the country desires it, Ms Ardern might not yet wish to deliver a progressive transformational agenda during the next parliamentary term.

She has shown to be a consensus builder and pragmatic in government. In many respects, she governed from the centre. And in her victory speech, she committed to continue in a similar vein.

She is likely to resist instituting far-reaching change that will further disrupt a society greatly disrupted by the coronavirus response. She may wait until after the next election in 2023, all going well for her.

As shown by her “go early and go hard” response to the COVID-19 crisis, she is capable of acting boldly and quickly. But implementing a political agenda at a similar pace and scale could put at risk the central factor that propelled Ms Ardern’s party to a wide victory: her popularity with voters of all walks of life.