Netanyahu urges Iranians to topple ‘evil’ oppressors

It is possible Israel has dealt a death blow to a generation of Iranian leaders who have governed since the Shah’s overthrow. But there is no guarantee it will get to choose who or what fills that vacuum.

Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran. Picture: AP Photo

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“The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ­declared in the wake of Israel’s ­meticulously planned strikes on Iran’s most sensitive military ­facilities and senior commanders.

The call for a popular uprising against the regime – directed at millions of moderate Iranians fed up with hardline Islamic leaders whose preoccupation with bringing down the Jewish state has brought their nation to the brink of economic collapse – could hardly have been more blatant.

Israel’s Operation Rising Lion may primarily be aimed at addressing the existential threat posed by Tehran’s looming nuclear weapons’ capability, but it is clear Mr Netanyahu’s ambitions go beyond simply pushing that threat down the road. While no ­Israeli official is explicitly saying so, Iranian regime change appears to be the ultimate aim.

With Iran’s Islamic Republic now systematically weakened, its air defences crippled and regional proxies decapitated, Mr Netan­yahu believes now is the time for moderate Iranians to rise up and topple their oppressors.

Israel’s continuing military operation would “clear the path for you to achieve your freedom”, he said on Saturday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for a popular uprising against the Iranian regime. Picture: Government Press Office

Whether he truly believes moderate Iranians could roll back the clock to an era before the country’s 1979 Islamic revolution, when Iran was an ally of the US and Israel, is as unclear as such an outcome is unlikely.

It is entirely possible that Israel’s stunning, synchronised attacks on Iran may have dealt a death blow to the current generation of Islamic leaders who have governed the country since the overthrow of the Shah. But history is littered with cautionary tales of foreign efforts at regime change that have resulted in neither friendlier nor more democratic ­administrations.

Iranians may be unhappy with the parlous state of their economy and lack of freedoms but opposition groups in the country remain highly fragmented, while those waiting in the wings of the current leadership – including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s own son Mojtaba Khamenei – could prove to be even more confrontational.

After the 2022 protests, sparked by the death in custody of a young woman for violating Iran’s mandatory hijab laws, some opposition groups tried to form an anti-Islamic Republic coalition. But it quickly collapsed amid disagreement over who should lead it and what its priorities should be.

Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader may be increasingly unpopular with Iranians but – it hardly needs to be said – so is Mr Netanyahu, while anti-West nations such as China and Russia may be heavily invested in Iran remaining in competition with the US and Israel.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei giving a televised speech on Friday. Picture: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader

Assuming Israel’s military strikes have not yet delivered a knockout blow to its nuclear capabilities, Iran still has nuclear facilities at Fordow (buried some 800m underground) it could use to build nuclear warheads if it chooses to now pull out of the ­Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and rescind its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons.

“The conclusion could be that it can no longer sit on the proverbial nuclear fence and that it has to rush for a bomb or risk never having one,” Jonathon Panikoff, a former US National Intelligence Council official now at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote in an analysis.

Israel’s first strikes before dawn on Friday quickly killed several top officials including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and the armed forces chief of staff.

By Sunday, as many as 20 top Iranian commanders, including Ali Shamkhani, a senior Ayatollah adviser, had been assassinated and a large portion of its defence capability, including access to its ballistic missiles arsenal, had been crippled.

Mr Netanyahu has vowed to hit “every target of the Ayatollah regime” including, it seems, the Supreme Leader himself, who was relocated to a safe house at the weekend after his Tehran neighbourhood was pummelled by air strikes.

Israel also inflicted “serious damage” on Iran’s nuclear project by killing at least nine senior scientists and striking physical sites such as the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities – likely delaying Iran’s nuclear program for years.

Oil facilities and fuel depots that have long funded the country’s nuclear ambitions and also underpinned its sanctions-weakened economy were ablaze.

Of all the hits to Iran in recent days, Israel’s efforts to inflict long-term pain on the Iranian economy by decimating its oil export industry might well be the last straw for long-suffering, struggling Iranians.

A colour revolution is a possibility if Israel can attack the right targets, in terms of leadership and oil facilities, that weaken the economy “but it’s not a clear case of people marching up and rising on the palace”, says Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior defence analyst Malcolm Davis.

“There are a lot of hardliners and people in the IRGC and other security groups that would be more than happy to kill large numbers of civilians if it meant hanging onto power.

“A colour revolution only works if elements of the security forces and military side with the people,” he said. And there is no sign of that just yet.

“If regime change did happen and you had some sort of democratic regime come to power in the Middle East, it would solve a whole slew of problems. But you could also get something worse than the current regime.”

Israeli leaders continue to insist there is no declared policy to bring down Iran’s Islamic regime, though one official told Israel’s Channel 12 at the weekend: “If Iran continues to harm the civilian populace and cross red lines, all options will be on the table.”

Israeli President Isaac Herzog also urged world leaders on Sunday to support Israel’s struggle against Iran.

“We are at a historic crossroads, for the entire Middle East – between a terrorist jihad that seeks to dominate the region and a horizon of partnership and peace,” he said.

“This is not our war alone but (a war) of all those who seek a common future in our region.”

While Tehran’s retaliation has been ferocious so far, hitting Israeli civilian as well as military targets, senior Iranian officials cited by The New York Times at the weekend have expressed shock and anger at the failure of the country’s intelligence and air defence systems despite the vast sums invested in upgrading them.

Iranians participate in an Eid Ghadir ceremony and a protest march against the Israeli attacks on Iranian soil on Saturday in Tehran. Picture: Getty Images

Deep divisions have also emerged inside the regime over whether Iran can even sustain a prolonged war with Israel in its weakened state.

In an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, one official reportedly worried aloud that if Israel responded to Tehran’s counter-­attacks by attacking Iranian infrastructure or water and energy plants, it could spark protests or riots.

That was clearly on the mind of the country’s chief Islamic judge Mohseni Ejeie on Saturday when he warned that any Iranian citizen found to have posted social media comments supporting Israel’s attack would face up to six years in jail.

Amid the most serious challenge to his leadership in almost four decades in power, middle east experts say the Ayatollah’s top priority is regime stability.

Yet meeting the economic needs of the people while also satisfying his hardline ideological supporters’ lust for adventurism has become an almost impossible balancing act.

“The Iranian people – meaning those generally opposed to the government and who have participated in major protest movements in recent years – do not support Iran’s regional adventurism, and the nuclear issue is secondary to the economic issues they face in their day-to-day life,” says Brian Carter from the US-based Understanding War think tank.

“The adventurism presents a classic guns versus butter argument: why are these Iraqis, Yemenis, Lebanese etc getting our (Iranian) money (for weapons) while we (Iranians) remain in dire economic straits?”

Weakened, humiliated and increasingly alone, Iran has few good options.

A deal with the US to end its nuclear ambitions would represent abject surrender and almost certainly the end of the Ayatollah’s long reign

Yet it also understands it faces “existential peril” from Israel, warns International Crisis Group Iran project director Ali Vaez of a regime that still maintains tremendous firepower notwithstanding Israel’s extraordinary military success.

“At the end of the day this is a critical moment for the region because depending on what Iran and US President Trump does next we might face a moment of extreme peril in which an entire region might descend into more bloodshed.

“There is a risk of overestimation. But there is also a risk of underestimation. No one really knows what happens next.”