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Cameron Stewart

Israel at war: Iran-backed Hezbollah weighs its options

Cameron Stewart
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Picture: AFP
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Picture: AFP

The Iranian-backed terror group Hezbollah is keeping the world guessing about whether it will join Hamas and launch a new front against Israel in the country’s north.

Such a move would instantly transform the Israel-Hamas war into a devastating regional Middle Eastern conflict, with Israel fighting a war on two fronts and Iran becoming a major player.

The US is trying to deter Hezbollah from such a dramatic move by sending a second aircraft carrier to the region and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel in a conspicuous demonstration of American support for Tel Aviv.

An F/A-18E Super Hornet attached to the
An F/A-18E Super Hornet attached to the "Ragin' Bulls" of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 37 launches from the flight deck of the world's largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Picture; AFP.

So far, Hezbollah is teasing and taunting Israel by launching minor attacks on northern Israel while stopping short of launching a formal offensive against its neighbour and enemy.

On Sunday, it fired six anti-tank guided missiles towards an Israeli town and military outposts near the Lebanon border, killing at least one civilian. In retaliation, the Israeli Defence Forces struck Hezbollah military targets in ­Lebanon.

These tit-for-tat strikes have raised tensions and the very real prospect of a catastrophic miscalculation that could lead to broader conflict.

Hezbollah has made it clear it strongly supports Hamas and applauds its murderous attack on Israel last week that left more than 1300 Israelis dead.

Hezbollah officials have said publicly it was “not neutral in this battle” and its missile attacks on northern Israel were carried out to show solidarity with Hamas, stating that “our history and guns and our rockets are with you”.

Smoke billows near an Israeli military site close to the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, following shelling by Hezbollah. Picture: AFP.
Smoke billows near an Israeli military site close to the southern Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, following shelling by Hezbollah. Picture: AFP.

So far, these minor skirmishes amount to showmanship from Hezbollah rather than a sign that the Iranian proxy is ready to take on the might of the Israeli military in a head-on war.

This is a relief for Israel and the West, which initially feared Hezbollah might take immediate advantage of the fight between Hamas and Israel to launch its own major attack on the north of the country.

This relief might still be temporary. The imminent Israeli ground offensive into Gaza will almost certainly result in an enormous death toll of Hamas militants and civilians. The sight of Israeli forces pummelling Hamas in Gaza could yet change Hezbollah’s calculation and entice it to join the conflict.

Yet there are good reasons why Hezbollah may not be willing to take such a dramatic step, no matter how much it hates Israel’s assault on Gaza.

Although Hezbollah is considered the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor with an estimated 20,000 active fighters and 20,000 reserves armed with some 130,000 Iranian-funded missiles, it is still considered no match for the Israeli military.

Israeli soldiers patrol in armoured personnel carriers near the border with Lebanon. Picture: AFP.
Israeli soldiers patrol in armoured personnel carriers near the border with Lebanon. Picture: AFP.

Hezbollah is trained to fight guerrilla-style warfare and while it could cause significant destruction of Israeli cities and loss of life through missile strikes, it would almost certainly be defeated in a total war with Israel.

Any decision by Hezbollah to attack would give Israel a green light to invade Lebanon and dismantle the terror group.

“Hezbollah will not open a front from south Lebanon against Israel because it will justify Israel to destroy Lebanon,” says Hilal Khasan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut who has written books on the terror group.

Hezbollah is also less popular in Lebanon than it once was and any decision to attack Israel would be opposed by a significant portion of the population, specially Lebanon’s Christians.

Hezbollah, which is a political party in Lebanon, has been widely blamed for its role in mismanaging the country, which has teetered on the brink of financial collapse and ruin over the past year.

None of this means Hezbollah will not choose to attack Israel to take advantage of it when it is distracted by its fight in Gaza, but it will also pay a big price for such a move.

When it sees how Israel is punishing Hamas, it may think twice about launching its own attack.

For now, however, the murderous group is keeping the world guessing about its intentions.

Read related topics:Israel

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/israel-at-war-iranbacked-hezbollah-weighs-its-options/news-story/b5465d513f8ecf31cc99b9837a83c1d6