Greens likely to join Jacinda Ardern in running New Zealand after election

Barring a dramatic late shift in voter sentiment, New Zealand is set to awake this Sunday to the dawn of Labour-Green rule.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on the streets of Christchurch campaigning on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

Barring a dramatic late shift in voter sentiment, New Zealand is set to awake this Sunday to the dawn of a Labour-Green government — the first of its kind, and one that could alter the country’s relations with Australia and its broader foreign policy.

It is expected that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party will handily defeat the conservative opposition National Party in Saturday’s election, and subsequently commit to open coalition talks with the left-wing Green Party, a current governing partner.

The contours of a Labour-Green government will be shaped in the post-election coalition ­negotiations, where the parties will table their policy priorities for consideration and engage in various policy trade-offs.

With Labour’s current coalition partner, New Zealand First — led by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston ­Peters — looking highly doubtful to win any seats, the next government’s foreign policy will likely be more progressive and possibly more activist.

The Greens, for instance, may insist that New Zealand’s foreign policy elevate further the goal of maintaining and defending human rights, social justice and environmental standards around the world, regardless of the cost.

“Criticism of any foreign state or overseas organisation by Aotearoa New Zealand for violation of these principles should never be muted in the name of narrow economic or political interests, or historic affiliations”, Green Party global affairs policy states.

For Australia, that might mean even stronger New Zealand criticism of its refugee policy. It might also mean the next government taking a more critical look at the Australian mining practices and its oil and gas sectors, as New Zealand seeks to green its economy.

China too may bear the brunt of more Green influence on policy, especially for any perceived breaches to the human rights, ­labour and environmental chapters of New Zealand’s critical free-trade agreement with Beijing.

Whatever the situation, however, Ms Ardern will likely resist any idea that unduly compromises wider foreign policy goals and hurts important bilateral relations. That would include damaging the trans-Tasman relationship and aggravating the country’s biggest trading partner, China as New Zealand seeks to boost economic recovery from the COVID-19 ­crisis.

Other areas of possible change under a Labour-Green coalition could include oceans protection and climate change. Without New Zealand First around to block it, the establishment of the 620,000sq km ­Kermadec oceans sanctuary could be back on after it was first ­announced in 2015 by the then ­National-led government.

As Climate Change Minister, Green Party co-leader James Shaw was deployed to promote New Zealand’s climate action on the world stage. Kiwi climate ­advocacy could ramp up as the Greens flex their political muscle.

It is possible that New Zealand could get its first Green foreign minister. If so, the more pragmatic and knowing Mr Shaw is probably the preferred candidate. But it’s more likely the foreign affairs portfolio will go to a senior Labour MP, such as Trade Minister David Parker or Justice Minister Andrew Little.

It is also possible that New Zealand could get its first Green deputy prime minister.

Again, Mr Shaw is best suited, but it would likely go to Labour ­Finance Minister Grant Robertson, a close party confidante of Ms Ardern.