Foreign policy challenges will test the new Trump administration
Events more than doctrines will ultimately drive and define Donald Trump’s foreign policy, but one thing is certain: the world is much more volatile that when he last took the oath of office.
No sooner had Donald Trump secured re-election than speculation at home and abroad turned to what kind of foreign policy he will pursue in term two.
It’s not easy to predict. Trump’s foreign-policy instincts are mixed. He genuinely doesn’t want to preside over a new round of “endless” wars, small, hard-to-win conflicts in faraway places over issues that he believes are marginal to core American interests. But he also likes being a powerful world figure whose interventions on global issues are decisive. The president-elect is no neoconservative interventionist, but he is hard to restrain.
Events more than doctrines will ultimately drive and define Trump’s foreign policy. That’s how it goes. George W. Bush came to power wanting to reduce foreign policy’s place in American life – until he and the US were mugged by 9/11. Barack Obama did not expect to be overthrowing Muammar Gaddafi and dispatching troops into Syria and Iraq when he took the oath of office. Joe Biden had no idea that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would overshadow his presidency.
Similarly, what Trump wants may matter less than what foreign powers decide to do. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, a Russian attack on a NATO member, a major terror attack on the US, or an Iranian detonation of a nuclear weapon would force huge changes in American policy.
That said, some changes in world politics since 2017 offer Trump greater scope than when he took the oath of office for the first time.
Take Europe. When Trump entered the White House, the experienced German chancellor Angela Merkel, soon to be joined by France’s then-popular President Emmanuel Macron, led a formidable coalition of countries. This time it’s different. A frail German coalition government collapsed even as the ballots were being counted in the US, and Macron is a less imposing if more experienced presence than he was at the start of his mandate.
On climate, divisions inside Europe and voters’ concerns about energy costs have weakened Trump’s opponents. On migration, European attitudes have moved toward Trump. The EU is less self-confident, more aware of its security deficit, more worried about China, less united and less strongly led than they were.
On Ukraine and Russia, the Olaf Scholz-Joe Biden policy of keeping Ukraine on a short leash antagonised Russia without opening a path to victory for Kyiv. One can make a strong case for increased support to Ukraine as part of a plan to force Vladimir Putin to retreat. One also can argue that it would be more honest as well as cheaper and more realistic to accept that Ukraine must reach an agreement with Russia on terms acceptable to Moscow. But the muddy middle course Biden and Scholz unfortunately chose offers little hope, and leaves Trump free to change course.
In the Middle East, there is a vacuum in America’s Iran policy. In 2017, the Iran nuclear deal enjoyed the strong support of key US allies. Despite sustained efforts, Team Biden failed to revive the old nuclear deal or to find another path for US-Iran relations. With last week’s criminal charges over an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, the president-elect has much stronger legal and political standing for tough anti-Iran policies than he did in 2017. Closer to home, both Mexico and Canada have changed politically since 2017. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made Canada the standard bearer of global wokeism while stifling economic growth. Mexico’s judicial overhaul and general drift back toward left-leaning, quasi-authoritarian nationalism are worrying foreign investors.
China’s still-growing economic problems give Trump some leverage over Beijing as well. Xi Jinping is trying to bail out the construction industry and local governments and to stimulate spending among consumers hit hard by the housing downturn. Massive overinvestment has led to excess capacity in export-dependent industries ranging from cars to steel. That makes Xi vulnerable to American trade pressure and, perhaps, eager to strike deals with Trump.
Despite these opportunities, the world remains a dangerous place. Putin celebrated Trump’s return to power by putting old scantily clad modelling photos of the incoming first lady on Russian state TV. He is unlikely to offer Trump a cheap peace in Ukraine. China continues its massive military build-up. Key allies in East Asia question America’s reliability while loathing Trump’s trade policies. Middle East allies, including Israel, are flirting with Russia.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea do not want America to be great. They want it to fail. Trump can succeed only by outwitting and outmanoeuvring foreign adversaries that are smarter, better resourced and more ruthless than the hapless Democrats he defeated last week.
The Wall Street Journal
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