Trump and the ‘12-day war’

Tehran’s feeble retaliation shows how damaged the Khamenei regime is. The question remains how it will fare now.

A general view of the Al-Udeid US military air base, south of Doha. Picture: Rabih Moghrabi / AFP

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Iran fired 14 ballistic missiles at US troops in Qatar on Monday, and in typical fashion claimed to have “destroyed the American air base” in retaliation for US strikes on three nuclear sites.

Here on Planet Earth, the base was already substantially evacuated and the missiles were intercepted with no casualties reported. All sides said Iran gave advance notice that the attacks were coming. The price of oil fell.

This was Persian Kabuki theatre, and it would be laughable if real missiles weren’t aimed at Americans. It’s also no small matter to fire on Qatar, the friendliest state to Iran in the region, or at US Central Command’s regional headquarters.

But as a show of Iranian power or resolve, the attack failed. President Trump mocked it as “a very weak response,” adding that Iran had “gotten it all out of their ‘system’”.

For all the predictions that a strike on Iran would “almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths” (Tucker Carlson) and set off World War III, Iran strongly signalled it doesn’t want the fight. Israel has aggressively targeted Iran’s missile launchers, and Iranian salvos shrink each day. Iran is weak, and if its regime continues to shoot at the US or Israel, it risks its survival.

Of that Iran has been put on notice, and by a lethal combination: Israeli strikes and President Trump’s Truth Social account. On Monday Israel blew the gate off notorious Evin prison, where Iranian dissidents are held and tortured. Israel also struck Revolutionary Guard units focused on internal security and the headquarters of the Basij paramilitary, whose thugs Iran uses to put down protests.

These are deliberate attacks on the regime’s institutions of repression.

If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was relying on a US taboo against regime change to protect him from Israel or his own people, well, think again.

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday, “but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

Tulsi Gabbard may have fainted, and perhaps that was part of the post’s appeal for the President. But we don’t read Mr Trump as proposing another Iraq war. He wants “Peace and Harmony,” he wrote Monday, not a ground invasion or occupation. If Iran stands down, he would “encourage Israel to do the same.”

And sure enough, he later announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” within 24 hours and an end to what he called “the 12 day war.”

Israel reportedly agreed if Iran ceases its attacks, and Reuters reported that Iran had as well. The fair conclusion is that Iran surrendered, and even in 12 short days the war’s achievements are enormous for Israel and the US.

Iran appears to have lost its nuclear enrichment and weaponisation facilities, its leading military commanders and nuclear scientists, and much of its missile production and launch capacity. Israel may have liked more time to hit more targets, but it also has to worry about protecting its cities.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also made clear that Israel won’t return to a status quo in which Iran or its proxy militias endanger its existence. Israel is signalling it is prepared to strike again if Iran insists on rebuilding its missile and nuclear capabilities.

If Iran still thinks it can play by the rules of the late Quds Force killer Qassem Soleimani, Israel will from now on strike pre-emptively.

The question remains how Iran’s regime will fare now. Authoritarians appear to be sturdy until the moment they aren’t. Militarily humiliated, Mr Khamenei could fall prey to a popular uprising. Or he could fall to an elite coup, from elements of the regime or military that see the Ayatollah’s policies driving them into the ground. In either case it’s hard to imagine a successor that would be worse for US interests and “Peace and Harmony.”

As for Mr Trump, the ceasefire and “12 day war” line is a way of assuring the isolationist right that this won’t be another Iraq or Afghanistan.

He’ll squander these war gains if he lets Iran take a breather, retain any enriched uranium it has secretly stored, and then rearm.

But the past fortnight creates a rare opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East.

The Wall Street Journal