The prospect of Donald Trump being dragged into another open-ended conflict in the Middle East appears to be fading, after a subdued Iranian response to the audacious US strikes against the regime’s nuclear enrichment sites.
Trump has already claimed that a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed and will soon commence, arguing that it will help secure an “official end to the 12-day war”.
The US is far from being out of the woods, with Iran certain to dedicate its energies to rebuilding its nuclear program over time. It may also look at other means of extracting revenge against Washington – including the pursuit of terrorist attacks weeks, months or even years into the future.
The danger period is not over, and Iran has many ways of retaliating against the US – including following through on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which provides global markets with access to Persian oilfields.
Yet the immediate reaction from the Islamic theocracy has proved to be a largely symbolic missile strike on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This is the US’s largest military installation in the Middle East and home to about 10,000 American personnel.
The Iranian missile strikes were limited and appeared designed to avoid provoking the US, after Trump warned the regime there were more targets the US could easily take out. Prior notice was also given by Tehran of the missile attack, in a bid to minimise casualties and avoid escalation.
Concerns had emerged about the prospect of a more aggressive Iranian response pulling the US into another conflict in the region. Yet Tehran’s retaliation appears to be more of a face-saving exercise than a serious attempt to exact retribution on Washington – at least for now.
Any comparisons with the 2003 invasion of Iraq are deeply misguided, and Trump is clearly trying to draw a line under the operation and move on.
Taking to his Truth Social platform, the US President made clear there would be no American response. He also sought to deepen the Iranian humiliation by rubbing salt into the wound, saying it was a “very weak response, which we expected”.
“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,” Trump said. “Perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
The US President said that 13 of the 14 missiles fired by Iran had been “knocked down”, while one had been “set free” because it was heading in a non-threatening direction.
“CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!” he posted.
Parallels are being drawn between the current Iranian response and its reaction in January 2020 to the killing of the rogue nation’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani, during the first Trump administration.
The regime responded at the time by firing more than 12 ballistic missiles at the al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq and another located in Erbil to the north. While these strikes did not kill any Americans, they did result in injuries to scores of US service members.
Israeli officials are also floating the prospect of an imminent end to the campaign against Iran, given the US intervention has brought the Jewish state much closer to the realisation of its military objective – the neutralisation of the regime’s nuclear capabilities.
How much further Israel continues to press its advantage is a key question. Should the regime in Iran fall, this would dramatically change the outlook and open up a series of new challenges and opportunities.
However, if Trump proves successful in avoiding further escalation while reducing the reach and influence of Iranian power, this will be seen as a momentous achievement.
Such an outcome would shift the balance of power in the Middle East, remove a dangerous existential threat to Israel, make the world a safer place, and send a clear message to Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing.
No longer can autocratic regimes assume the US will stand on the sidelines.
While a more informed assessment of the damage inflicted by the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is needed, the early indications are that Trump may have clinched the outcome he was hoping for.
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