Fans still love him but Trump hasn’t a hope in 2024

But by destroying Trump so that he cannot run, the Democrats may be snuffing out their best hope of victory.

Donald Trump behaved atrociously during the Capitol riots. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump is set to win the Republican nomination for president in 2024 should he want it but, similarly, he also is on track to lose the election.

No presidential candidate in US history could claim such a bizarre juxtaposition so far out.

The first chapter of the congressional investigations into Trump’s behaviour on January 6 last year, which wound up last week, have skewered his hopes of a comeback in the minds of all but his most diehard supporters.

Incriminated by his own family and closest advisers, Trump behaved atrociously on that fateful day, turning a blind eye to violent protests intent on overturning the election result and tarnishing what had been a successful presidency.

“He’s got to condemn this shit ASAP. The Capitol Police tweet is not enough,” Donald Trump Jr, Trump’s eldest child and his most loyal supporter, texted on January 6 to Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff. “This (is) one you go to the mattresses on. They will try to f..k his entire legacy on this if it gets worse,” he said at 2.58pm on January 6. Things did get much worse, and they have.

Donald Trump and family at the funeral of Ivana Trump this month in New York City. Picture: Getty Images

It should have been no shame to lose an election during a pandemic when voters, who mostly pay little attention to the details of who does what, were fearful, resentful of restrictions and naively hopeful that a new administration might shut down the virus. Them’s the breaks in politics.

The stench of gross negligence, potentially criminal, will intensify in coming months as the January 6th select committee releases its final report and as parallel investigations in Georgia and by the federal Justice Department – greater immediate threats to Trump personally – ramp up.

The bulk of Trump supporters don’t care much about the proceedings. Almost 79 per cent of attendees at a Florida Republican convention last weekend said they would back Trump as the party’s candidate in 2024, compared with 23 per cent for Ron DeSantis in the Florida Governor’s home state. Other high-profile names – former Trump secretary of state Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Trump’s former vice-president Mike Pence – scored fewer than 1 per cent of the votes.

Betting markets put Trump as a lay-down misere to win the Republican nomination. But in the upper echelons of the Republican Party, the committee’s findings are chipping away at Trump’s standing. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor who only just clinched the Republican nomination for the Pennsylvania Senate race with Trump’s backing, said thank you by quietly removing Trump from his Twitter banner and biography this month.

The allegations slowly will seep out into the public consciousness across the next year and they aren’t likely to subside. The investigations will roll well into next year, ensuring a constant drip feed of bad news for Trump.

The Justice Department, according to one well-placed senior Republican lawyer, is likely to fight claims of executive privilege in the courts, a shield used by some witnesses to the congressional committee to refuse to answer questions about their direct interactions with Trump, which would mean a whole new round of revelations.

Trump’s former supporters in the media have turned on him, too. Even Fox News, by far the most powerful network in the US and one of the former president’s most strident backers throughout his term, appears to be souring on Trump, as have the New York Post and The Wall Street Journal.

At the same time as Trump is seeking re-election, his closest allies could well be fighting off prison sentences. Trump lawyers John Eastman, the former president’s constitutional adviser, and Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, are widely expected to face criminal charges. It will be a terrible look for a presidential candidate.

Already, Trump’s Svengali, Steve Bannon, is about to face a term in prison for contempt of congress for refusing on dubious grounds to answer questions from congress about his role in the riot. Not since the Hollywood 10 – a group of allegedly pro-communist producers, actors and screenwriters – in the 1950s have any Americans served time for contempt of congress.

In recent speeches during the past few days Trump has had the opportunity to rebut the central allegation – his refusal to act for 187 minutes despite relentless requests to do so – but he hasn’t, instead dwelling on the ostensibly stolen 2020 election before ardent supporters in Arizona and Washington. He just can’t let go.

Steve Bannon. Picture: AFP

To be sure, the congressional investigation into Trump’s behaviour is highly political; its nine members, including two Republicans, loathe him. But it is biased mainly in the sense that only Republicans have testified, including the most loyal former members of his staff.

Trump, who would be 78 in 2024, didn’t address the damning allegations because they appear irrefutable. He appeared tired this week in his first speech in Washington since losing office, drawing few claps during his doomsday, 90-minute diatribe about the state of the nation.

In the meantime Democrats are manoeuvring as Joe Biden’s promise to run again looks less and less credible, for health reasons as much as polling numbers.

Hotel magnate and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker recently popped up in tiny New Hampshire – a state that votes early in the presidential primaries – to rally the Democrat base. California Governor Gavin Newsom has forked out on advertisements in Florida. Michelle Obama, the popular wife of former Democrat president Barack Obama, also can’t be ruled out as a contender.

For Democrats the January 6 committee, wrongly derided as bereft of new information, could be too successful. By destroying Trump, Democrats may be snuffing out their best hope of victory in 2024. Ensuring Trump has enough political capital to run in 2024, but not enough to win, should be their optimal strategy.