Iran’s latest missile strikes in Tel Aviv, and on a hospital in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba, will stiffen Israel’s resolve to finish the job of destroying as much of Iran’s nuclear program as possible.
They are also likely to increase the chances that US President Donald Trump will join Israel in offensive operations in Iran.
The penetration of the missiles will have shocked many Israelis. As the frequency and size of Iranian missile attacks on Israel reduced over the course of the week during which the Israel/Iran war has been going, Israelis and their allies became perhaps a little complacent that they had diminished, if not destroyed, Iran’s ability to strike back. The Israeli government had announced an easing of restrictions on Israelis’ movements and activities because the Iranian missile threat seemed to be decreasing.
This is because Israel has been hitting Iranian missile stocks, and all the technical gear supporting them, in order to make it more difficult for Iran to carry out just this kind of missile strike.
However, experts think the Israelis may have destroyed 30 to 40 per cent of Iran’s missiles. That still leaves Iran with a lot of missiles to fire.
Israeli air missions are working to suppress this.
The Israelis have for example attacked the trucks which typically move Iranian missiles from their storage silos to their launch points. The Israelis have been focused on attacking choke points in both Iran’s nuclear program and its missile program.
Israel has interceptors which can take out even ballistic missiles and it seems to have destroyed the majority of Iranian missiles launched even in this latest attack.
However, no missile defence system is 100 per cent foolproof.
Israeli’s Iron Dome system of defence is mainly directed at the kind of low-tech missiles and projectiles which Hamas traditionally fired from Gaza, and the more hi-tech but still limited missiles which Hezbollah fired from southern Lebanon.
Full-scale ballistic missiles travelling at enormous speed are very difficult targets for interceptors to get. As the boffins say, it’s a challenge akin to hitting bullets with bullets.
Meanwhile Israel is continuing to attack nuclear, missile, military, police, broadcast and some energy infrastructure targets inside Iran. The Israeli operation will have a limited time duration. It has done a great deal of damage to Iran’s nuclear programs already.
But of course the whole world waits on Trump’s decision on whether he will use American forces to help the Israelis hit and hopefully destroy the Fordow nuclear facility, which is buried deep inside a mountain.
The American bunker buster bomb was built with Fordow in mind.
However, the Israelis also have a number of different ways they can attack Fordow as well.
There is no visible weakening of Israeli resolve in this campaign. The Israeli government says it will be intensifying its air campaign in Iran in the coming days.
Trump was certainly telling the truth when he said no-one knows what he will do about striking Iran. He also said he likes to make a decision one second before it must be made, because circumstances keep changing.
The Israeli campaign will continue for some days at least. There are bound to be more surprises.
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