Donald Trump on the cusp of a great feat of international diplomacy in the Middle East
A dramatic diplomatic breakthrough has ended two years of bloodshed in Gaza, after the US President leveraged Arab allies to force Hamas and Israel to the negotiating table.
Donald Trump is on the cusp of one of the great feats of international diplomacy and his most significant achievement after securing the agreement of Israel and Hamas to end hostilities after two years of brutal, bloody conflict.
Everything will hinge on the execution of this agreement and whether the peace can hold together. This is only the opening move in a much larger chess game, but Trump appears to have emerged with a stunning diplomatic victory – a breakthrough to end the war in Gaza.
This is not yet a broader deal for peace in the Middle East. It is an agreement that covers only the first stage of Trump’s comprehensive plan, including the return of Israeli hostages, a prisoner exchange, the withdrawal of Israel to an agreed-upon line and the entry of aid into Gaza.
However, even if just these elements are delivered, it will be seen as a personal achievement of enormous strategic import and one deserving of international recognition regardless of whatever decision the Nobel Committee makes about its peace prize this week.
The US President on social media hailed the development as the “first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace” and vowed that “all Parties will be treated fairly”.
“This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen.”
There can be no doubt this was a uniquely Trumpian achievement beyond the reach of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. The game-changer was Trump’s ability to establish a more dynamic partnership with the Arab world – a partnership he leveraged to build pressure and momentum for a settlement.
A key turning point for Trump – and the Middle East – was the September strike by Israel on senior Hamas leaders in Doha, which suggested the conflict was at a tipping point. The escalation presented Trump with a unique opportunity to enlist Qatar and other Arab countries in the task of more strongly pressing Hamas into accepting a deal.
This required a delicate reconciliation between Doha and Tel Aviv. Doha was furious at the attack but at the same time realised it could not continue to support Hamas while remaining a friend to the US.
The attack showed the entire Arab world it had to choose sides.
Yet Trump realised he had to play a delicate game and was able to facilitate a phone call between a reluctant Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani during the Israeli Prime Minister’s White House visit. The US President held the phone while Netanyahu apologised.
Trump also provided Qatar with NATO-like assurances after the Israeli strike. In the event of another attack on Qatar, the US would take “all lawful and appropriate measures – including diplomatic, economic and, if necessary, military – to defend the interests of the US and of the state of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.”
This was an extraordinary commitment. The terms of the ANZUS treaty state that the US and Australia would “consult together” and, in the event of an armed attack, both nations would “act to meet the common danger”.
The guarantee suggested if Israel attacked Qatar, the US would protect Doha against its own ally.
The security guarantee and Netanyahu’s apology were timed for the announcement of Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which came with full backing from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. Although the Arab countries were disappointed that Netanyahu and Trump tweaked the deal after they had agreed to it, they continued to back the proposal. The three countries went on to threaten Hamas, saying they would withdraw all political and diplomatic support unless the militant group accepted the deal.
The reality is that only Trump had the good will with Qatar and personal capital with Netanyahu to engineer this kind of resolution. It is unlikely any other US president could have successfully turned the Israeli attack on Doha and its potential for escalation into such an opportunity for peace.
The sense of partnership with the Arab world has been the missing element in Trump’s dealings so far with Vladimir Putin and the key reason why a similar breakthrough in Eastern Europe has eluded the US President. While Trump was disappointed by Russia, he has been rewarded by Arab nations for thinking outside the box and setting relations on a more pragmatic footing through a combination of economic deals, enhanced defence partnerships and diplomatic engagement.
This reset was decisive. Well before the Qatar strike, on a tour of the Gulf nations in May, Trump used a major speech in Riyadh to decry previous US approaches to the Middle East for failed experiments in nation-building.
He argued that the success of the Gulf Nations offered the Middle East the best pathway for embracing “safe and orderly societies with improving quality of life, flourishing economic growth, expanding personal freedoms, and increasing responsibilities on the world stage”.
It was at the end of this tour that Trump controversially accepted a $400m 747 jetliner as a gift from Qatar to replace Air Force One, with the US President famously declaring he would be “stupid” to turn down the present.
This raised ethical questions, but pointed to a world view shaped more by business considerations than political ones.
Earlier in the year, he proposed the US take over the Gaza Strip, create thousands of jobs and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East” – an untenable idea but one that showed how unshackled he was from approaches of the past.
It all points to one of Trump’s greatest strengths: his ability to exploit crises to gain leverage and press his advantage. In the end, his 20-point-peace plan – which would see Hamas disarm and relinquish its governance role in Gaza – was endorsed by Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt.
In its statement accepting a deal to end the fighting, Hamas was careful not to mention disarming or relinquishing its hold over Gaza. The details need to be worked through, but the first steps have now been taken.
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