Covid ‘failures’ study ignites feud between Trump and DeSantis

Lockdowns and vaccine passports, two of the most divisive policies in a generation, failed to stop spread of Covid-19, studies suggest.

Ron DeSantis was accused by Donald Trump of rewriting history. Picture: AFP

Lockdowns and vaccine passports, two of the most divisive policies in a generation, failed to stop the spread of Covid-19, two new studies suggest, fuelling an emerging competition between Donald Trump and Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis over who was less taken in by pandemic rules.

The two policies together shut businesses and schools, and prevented Americans from entering restaurants, bars, gyms, theatres and sports arenas for months during the pandemic unless they were vaccinated, caused mass lay-offs of the unvaccinated and triggered around $US5 trillion in stimulus spending.

“Our results overwhelmingly support the conclusion that the city-level indoor vaccine mandates in the US had a statistically negligible effect on vaccine uptake, cases and deaths,” the first major study of the effectiveness of US vaccine mandates concluded.

The authors, from George Mason and West Virginia universities, compared health metrics in nine US cities – including Washington, New York and San Francisco, which introduced vaccine passports between August 2021 and March 2022 – with the outcomes for cities that did not.

“An unvaccinated person in France would have to travel to another country to legally eat at an indoor restaurant, whereas the same unvaccinated person in New York City could simply drive to New Jersey to do so,” they added, trying to explain why mandates were more effective at boosting vaccination rates in Europe

A separate analysis of the 50 US states’ differing lockdown policies – as in Australia, US states had responsibility for pandemic policy – found their severity made no difference to health outcomes, but prompted significant emigration from states with longer and stricter lockdowns.

“Florida and California exemplified the impact … The two states had roughly equal health outcomes, suggesting little, if any, health benefit from California’s severe approach,” the three authors, from top the universities of Chicago and Stanford, said.

“California’s severe lockdowns seemed to elicit a jump in its already high out-migration, while Florida experienced a significant in-migration increase … Florida’s commitment to keeping schools open was likely a significant factor in attracting people from around the country.”

In his new book, Courage to be Free, Mr DeSantis, who is expected to announce a 2024 presidential bid in the wake of his former political mentor, said he disagreed with Mr Trump’s extension of an initial federal recommendation for “15 days to slow the spread” that for some states, such as California, lasted more than a year.

Last month Mr Trump accused Mr DeSantis of “trying to rewrite history”. “There are Republican governors that did not close their states,” he said. “Florida was closed for a long period of time.”

The US, with more than 1 million, has among the highest rates of Covid-19 deaths in the world, well ahead of Brazil, whose government was often criticised for taking a lax approach.

“In future pandemics policymakers should avoid severe, prolonged and generalised restrictions and instead carefully tailor government responses to specific disease threats, encouraging state and local governments to balance the health benefits against the economic, educational, health, and social costs,” the study authors recommended.