Canada’s new PM Mark Carney tipped to call snap election

The election is set to be dominated by US President Donald Trump, whose trade war and repeated questioning of Canada’s sovereignty have up-ended Canadian politics.

Mark Carney, a former central banker, replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister earlier this month. Picture: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images/AFP

New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call a snap election for April 28, triggering an intense campaign dominated by President Donald Trump’s trade war and demands to turn the close US ally into a 51st state.

Carney, who replaced prime minister Justin Trudeau just last week, is set to announce the election date on Sunday, two government sources told AFP Thursday on condition of anonymity.

The quick election announcement reflects Mr Carney’s wish to capitalise on a polling surge for his Liberal Party, driven in large part by the US tariffs and Mr Trump’s unprecedented and repeated statements that Canada should not remain an independent country.

At the start of the year — just before Trump took office — the Liberals had appeared headed for an electoral wipe-out, with the opposition Conservatives on track to form the next government.

Mark Carney embraces Justin Trudeau after being announced the winner at the Liberal leadership Event in Ottawa earlier this month. Picture: Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP

Amid relentless pressure from Mr Trump and internal Liberal Party divisions, Mr Trudeau announced his plans resign after nearly a decade in power.

However, Mr Carney, who overwhelmingly won the March 9 party vote to replace Mr Trudeau, has succeeded in uniting the Liberals as they confront Mr Trump and fears of trade-war-induced recession.

Political novice

This will be the first campaign for Mr Carney, a 60-year-old former central banker who has never held elected office.

He argues that his experience leading the Bank of Canada through the 2008-2009 financial crisis and as head of the Bank of England during the Brexit vote makes him the ideal candidate to lead during a time of economic turmoil.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomes Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney outside 10 Downing Street this week. Picture: Carl Court/Getty Images

Mr Carney has called Trump’s United States a country Canada can “no longer trust” and warned Canadians that relations with Washington may be permanently altered.

After being sworn in on Friday, Mr Carney quickly headed to Paris and London, arguing Canada needed to solidify its European alliances as ties with the United States deteriorate.

“What is clear is that our trade and our security relations are too reliant on the United States. We must diversify,” he said in London.

Polling surge

The Conservatives had been seeing a rise in polling numbers over the past year and their leader Pierre Poilievre looked on track to be prime minister. But recent surveys show the race will be a dead heat.

The Liberal polling gains have in part come at the expense of the left-wing New Democrats, who progressive voters often trust on domestic issues like healthcare but are not widely seen as strong in managing relations with the United States.

Queen’s University politics professor Stephanie Chouinard told AFP the election call was expected, with the Liberals making gains, but noted “there is still uncertainty around Mark Carney, who has never campaigned.” “It’s going to be a test in difficult conditions for him,” she added.

‘Maple syrup MAGA’?

The polling suggests some voters are less comfortable backing Mr Poilievre as a counter to Mr Trump and his talk of annexing Canada.

The Tory leader has been praised on social media by key Trump ally Elon Musk, and some Liberals have sought to brand Mr Poilievre as “Maple Syrup MAGA.”

But Mr Poilievre is a seasoned politician who has sought to distance himself from Mr Trump.

Mr Trump appears to have noticed, saying the Canadian Conservative is “stupidly no friend of mine.”

University of Ottawa politics professor Genevieve Tellier said that both the Conservatives and the New Democrats “will try to focus on issues other than Mr Trump’s threats because that favours the Liberals for now.”

“It’s an incredible turnaround for the Liberals,” she told AFP, noting Canadians are “also looking for a certain stability” and may see the Liberals, in power since 2015, as less of a risk.