“Yes, defence, climate change and technology are all part of the future. But so too are social and cultural changes”

Social forces: a Black Lives Matter protest in Canberra. Picture: AAP

I have had a fascination with the future of Australia for much of my career. For decades I have read books and reports scoping how our nation might develop in years to come. I like the current crop of strategic plans for our capital cities, projecting what they might look like in the 2050s.

Occasionally a forward-looking defence white paper might be released, or a scientific report focused on climate issues. There’s also the occasional intergenerational report that looks at how the economy might fare based on changes in the workforce. And yet despite this plethora of information, our vision of the future is limited. These documents deal with scientific, military and demographic facts. But looking back, it is evident that some of the most powerful forces shaping Australian society have derived from the social sphere.

Imagine predicting the social churn and workplace change of the early 2020s from the vantage point of 2010. At that time few people worried about the prospect of a pandemic – even though, with the advent of mass air travel, the threat was always there.

Back in 2010, China was a rising force but America’s primacy wasn’t seriously questioned. Indeed, the expectation was that China would liberalise with the rise of a middle class. By 2020, China, Russia and others were openly arguing that the US-led global order must change. And suddenly, the Australian outlook for the decade ahead has had to accommodate a greater level of defence spending.

In the first decade of this millennium, the newfangled phenomenon of social media – initially regarded as little more than a quirky tool popular with the young – gathered momentum. By 2020 it had helped fuel a series of social movements that challenged the prevailing order. Black Lives Matter and #MeToo, both stemming from the US, were quickly embraced here, too. The influence of digital transformation, including social media, is only likely to grow in years to come.

Australian society unfolds as a series of interconnected events and developments, and this is not reflected in the current crop of future-looking reports and diagnoses, which tend to focus on one aspect of the future, such as the economy, defence or climate. What we need is a collection of future visions that boldly encompass evidence-based, holistic views of how Australian society might unfold in the decade ahead. Even if these visions ultimately prove inaccurate, they would at least stress-test current planning, funding and organisational systems in both the public and private sectors.

For example, what if immigration doesn’t return to previous levels and foreign students increasingly pursue education services in other countries? What if backpackers and seasonal workers are less inclined to visit Australia? How will we attract and/or train workers then? And what would become of the foreign students’ inner-city apartmentia? Many jobs are being rendered obsolete by technology, too – how will that affect young Australians entering the workforce? Surely new social movements are likely to evolve in the 2020s. Perhaps ageing baby boomers will demand greater access to the workforce as part of diversity and inclusion programs.

We allocate resources to understanding parts of the future when in fact what is required is a broader view of the years ahead. Yes, defence, climate change and technology are all part of the future. But so too are the social and cultural changes that impact everyday Australian life. We need to factor more of a social perspective into planning the future of Australia in the 2020s and beyond.