Wine: Penfolds

Our total plantings decrease as our main regional market continues to explode. What next?

For a number of years I have wondered whether the constant hand-wringing about grape surpluses, and the need to continue reduction in plantings, was misplaced.

Wine is now an globalised commodity, the shifting sands of supply and demand beyond the control of buyers and sellers, no matter how powerful.

Given the uncertainty this generates, it is arguably better to have an excess than a shortage. Yes, it will create distortions that will cause most economic pain for those at the start of the chain - in this instance the grape growers - but it will help defend market share.

A shortage will push prices up, but will do nothing to defend market share; indeed, it may reduce market share if purchasers see the price rises as unjustified, or at least reduce the competitive advantage that created the demand in the first place. There will be plenty of suppliers waiting to take Australia's place in the market.

Defending an existing share is easier than increasing a share at someone else's expense.

In the midst of this is the mastodon in the room, China, with a string of Asian elephants - Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea - following. China is already the leading market in all price segments from $5 to $200 per litre and above, rising by 63 per cent in the year to March 31 this year. The US grew by four per cent, and the UK by six per cent, over the same period.

On top of this, leading English-language market-research business Wine Intelligence forecasts that the number of Chinese residents able to afford imported wine will treble by 2020.

Our ability to maximise the opportunities sits ill at ease with the decline in plantings from 173,776ha in 2007 to 135,178ha in 2015. Treasury Wine Estates (read Penfolds in China) is already short of premium grapes. Whither now?

2012 Penfolds The Max Schubert Commemorative Release Cabernet Shiraz

Wow. A 61/39% blend of Barossa shiraz and Coonawarra cabernet led to 1962 Bin 60A, Max Schubert's greatest wine. This inherits Bin 60A's regional/varietal blend, with extreme longevity and impeccable balance between fruit, oak and tannins. All it needs is time. 14% alc, screwcap.

98 points, drink to 2052, $450

2012 Penfolds Cellar Reserve Coonawarra Cabernet Sauvignon

This is Coonawarra cabernet as only Penfolds can create - the bouquet instantly communicates class and style. Cassis, black olive and cedary oak are the foundations for a wine with perfect dimensions, the tannins and French oak superbly handled.14.5% alc, screwcap.

97 points, drink to 2052, $200

2013 Penfolds Bin 150 Marananga Shiraz

I've been a believer in the exceptional quality and style of this wine from the first vintage. It spends 12 months in new and used French and American oak and the allure of the bouquet is immediate, as is the deliciously grainy texture of the mouthfeel, and the almost decadent well of black fruit flavours. 14.4% alc, screwcap 96 points, drink to 2043, $80