Was Covid-19 the pandemic we had to have?

There is every reason to be hopeful about Australia’s prospects in the post-Covid world, writes Bernard Salt. Picture: AFP

How has Australia been changed by the pandemic and have we emerged stronger or weaker as a nation because of the experience?

It’s a question often posed by historians looking back at significant events: what was the pain and did it deliver any long-term benefit?

World War II, for example, was a threat to our security and sovereignty. It claimed 39,000 Australian lives and caused anguish and pain still remembered by survivors and their families, and yet this war was followed by a period of extraordinary prosperity. After the war, America moved comfortably into the role of global superpower assuring the security of Australia. The war triggered a mobilisation of industry and labour, which relied upon women entering the workforce.

No doubt the pandemic delivered us pain and anxiety. Some argue lockdowns caused damage to our collective mental health, to the schooling experience of children, and that the pandemic threatened the wellbeing of frontline healthcare and aged care workers.

It also changed our trading relationship with China, our largest export market. But I suspect we were heading for tensions before the pandemic hit. The pandemic also further indebted the nation in the struggle to keep jobs alive and businesses afloat. Some say that legacy will shape budgets for decades to come.

Superannuation funds were tapped to help survive the moment but this act also weakened our capacity for independence in retirement in the 2030s and beyond. Borders were closed for almost two years limiting the flow of visitors.

Prior to the pandemic I don’t think Australians saw themselves as being cut off from the rest of the world. I think it heightened the collective awareness of our vulnerabilities: we are an island continent dependent upon the free flow of trade and people.

And so it is for this reason, I think, that for the most part Australians welcomed the AUKUS deal. Trade tensions plus the war in Ukraine suggest a transition in geopolitical settings: out with globalisation (which delivered “easy” prosperity), in with evolving trading blocs (requiring Australia to work harder to broaden its markets).

In a social sense, there has been a structural shift in the way we work. The idea of remote work was triggered by the pandemic and Australians are unlikely to relinquish their perceived lifestyle gains.

Meanwhile, the post-Covid world’s labour shortages, initial spending boom and now the cost of living crisis are accelerating digital transformation. Out with call centres, checkout operators, even waiters; in with apps.

We were conditioned into this kind of behaviour by mastering the pandemic’s QR codes and other compliance measures. Digital transformation at this scale must ultimately deliver productivity gains.

And so just as post-WWII industrialisation led to efficiencies in manufacturing so might the pandemic-inspired technology shift lead to efficiencies in services delivery.

There is every reason to be hopeful about Australia’s prospects in the post-Covid world. But it will be different. We will need to adapt to learn new technology, to build new markets. We have done it before. We will do it again.