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Bernard Salt

The West may be slow to anger but we have something mightily galvanising: our inherent sense of fairness

Bernard Salt
Turmoil: the financial impacts of the pandemic will be long-lasting. Picture: Nikki Short
Turmoil: the financial impacts of the pandemic will be long-lasting. Picture: Nikki Short
The Weekend Australian Magazine

The coronavirus pandemic is the most significant, sustained global event since World War II. It has touched every nation, prompted a co-ordinated response from the scientific community, triggered large-scale public spending programs and required the public to make sacrifices in order to survive. It has also coincided with an era of geopolitical challenge and technological change. There is a sense that we are entering a different world.

Events of this scale are scary at any time but especially for a generation unused to a threat to security and survival. The World War II generation had the experience of the Great Depression and the Great War, plus the solace of belief in the hereafter. We have had nothing to prepare us for the events that have unfolded, and might unfold, in the 2020s. We have known nothing but peace, prosperity and the increasing freedoms of globalisation. The prospect of a new world order based not on Western values is challenging.

There are parallels we can draw on. The last era of profound social, cultural and political change was the 12 years to 1974, bookended by the Cuban missile crisis and the resignation of an incumbent US president (Nixon). Toss in the seismic shift to the ALP’s Gough Whitlam and Australia pretty much changed tack over this period too. The late 1960s was an era of profound social change, with the rise of the women’s movement and an emerging protest culture triggered by the Vietnam War and conscription. Here was a time when the post-war “establishment” was challenged by upstart Baby Boomer teenagers.

Fifty years later, “old-world” thinking is again being challenged by a new set of values and ideals based on concepts such as climate action, diversity, tolerance, inclusion and social justice. Unlike the youth and gendered rebellions of the late 1960s, today’s activists aren’t constrained by age or gender. Today’s social issues have wider demographic appeal.

At a geopolitical level the missile crisis, Vietnam, Watergate and the oil crisis didn’t trigger an immediate, serious challenge to the pre-eminence of America. The USSR eventually crumbled from within but not until the late 1980s. The threat du jour when I was at primary school in the 1960s was the possibility of nuclear war with Russia. UFOs weren’t alien spacecraft, they were Moscow’s spy planes.

Social, cultural and technological changes can be absorbed quickly, often creating a better, fairer version of society. This was true of the rise of a middle class after World War I and the welfare state after World War II. The social changes that emerged in Australia from the late ’60s took four or five years to be fully absorbed by the broader community. Even a kinetic geopolitical event like World War II was over within six years. Today’s superpowers could not sustain an all-out conflict for this long.

The Western world may be slow to anger but we do have something that is mightily galvanising and that is our inherent sense of fairness, the sense of indignation when subjected to bullying and/or belligerent behaviour. The great challenge for Australia, and for the Western world, is to stall the prospect of serious conflict for as long as possible so as to enable a natural withering of an aggressor state to take effect. This could be due to demographic change – not enough young people – or insufficient resources.

But this is an extreme outlook for the 2020s. A number of scenarios are possible in the decade ahead but what is most probable is that the existing world order will prevail, having absorbed significant social and technological change along the way.

Read related topics:Coronavirus
Bernard Salt
Bernard SaltColumnist

Bernard Salt is widely regarded as one of Australia’s leading social commentators by business, the media and the broader community. He is the Managing Director of The Demographics Group, and he writes weekly columns for The Australian that deal with social, generational and demographic matters.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/the-west-may-be-slow-to-anger-but-we-have-something-mightily-galvanising-our-inherent-sense-of-fairness/news-story/7c36d5cfd8417778797ff5e541f11c03