Modern warfare: how it’s waged sometimes without firing a single shot

There is a simple way the citizens of modern Australia can do our bit at a time when aggressor nations achieve compliance without firing a single shot. and that is to remain confident in the values of our Australian way of life.

In September 1939, Australian prime minister Robert Menzies delivered a radio address that began: “Fellow Australians, it is my melancholy duty to inform you...” What followed was an announcement that following the invasion of Poland, Britain had declared war on Germany and that “as a result, Australia is also at war”. Thereafter came a conflict of six years that wreaked misery and destruction upon the people and civic infrastructure of the primary combatants.

Fast forward 82 years, and the nature of conflict has changed. There is still a market for conflict, for war, but the new way of war is conflict by stealth. Today there is no formal declaration of war, rather a series of encroachments designed to take territory without provoking a response. War is a messy and unpredictable business. Far better to make incursions that, depending upon the outcome, can be withdrawn.

The best way to win a conflict in the 2020s is to get a head start by not informing an adversary that a conflict has already started; to frame aggressions in such a way that there is always scope for plausible denial. Test an adversary’s data and information systems by launching incessant cyberattacks that can be ascribed to criminal elements if questioned. Start with incursions into non-critical bureaucracy and the corporate sector, then make forays into defence and security systems. See what they do, how they respond. Review, adjust and test again. And again.

Wear them down. Create the impression that resistance is futile; show them that they are on the wrong side of history. Intimidate with incessant displays of military force. Identify non-military levers such as trade arrangements and use positions of influence to deliver unfavourable outcomes to targeted countries.

Ensure the leadership of the aggressor nation (or the nation seeking to redress past wrongs, depending on your world view) is in an unassailable position of power for at least the next decade. Ensure that the dear leader achieves his or her goals, including a favourable outcome in any hot conflict before they reach their mid-70s. No point conceptualising and executing a grand vision without a follow-up decade of reasonable health in which to bask in the glory and the exultation of victory.

Weaken the moral authority of the targeted country by identifying areas of debate such as the treatment of minorities, the degradation of the environment, its colonial past. The theory is that while these arguments can be countered or even dismissed, they are sure to strike a chord among the masses. They might even galvanise people into a course of action that leads to internal resistance down the track.

Perhaps try out these techniques on neighbouring countries to see how they’re received. Why not commandeer by increment an adjacent state that offers a warm water port or that, say, serves as a global centre of finance and business? And then there’s the need to disentangle targeted countries from alliances with stronger powers.

Back in Menzies’ time, countermeasures against an aggressor nation involved military spending, and this is still important. But in the brave new world of conflict by stealth, there’s a growing need to counter a war of words that could corrode our national confidence. The Australians of World War II had to be resilient. How can we, the citizens of modern Australia, do our bit at a time when aggressor nations can achieve compliance, a version of subjugation, without firing a single shot? There is a simple way – and that is to remain confident in the values of our Australian way of life.