In 2102, will the average Australian live to 104?

The good life: our ideas about ageing have changed

In 1942, the average Australian could expect to live for 63 years; today, life expectancy is closer to 84. In a broad sense, in 80 years we have added two decades to our lifespan. How did we manage that? And how much further can humanity expect to extend life expectancy?

My grandfather died of cancer in 1950 at the age of 62; his wife, my grandmother, died of cancer at 64. I am now older than both and as such I’m a net beneficiary of improvements in Australian healthcare. Also, I do not smoke, whereas my grandfather apparently smoked a packet of Turf cigarettes every day.

He was a shearer, a timber cutter, a contract farm labourer. He left school at 12 and worked outside on the land for the next 50 years with little reprieve. I don’t know this for certain, but I suspect he never ate a salad and he never jogged. (Why would a farm labourer jog? Plus, what’s a jog?)

Our life expectancy has increased largely because of improvements in medicine and falling rates of infant mortality. Our medical research industry is still making important breakthroughs. But I wonder whether it’s possible to repeat the gains of the past. In 2102, will the average Australian live to 104? This concept is as fantastical to us today as was the idea of living to 84 back in my grandfather’s day.

In order to improve his life expectancy, my grandfather would have had to stop smoking, change his diet and take breaks (“holidays”) in his working life. This would have required a whole-of-society shift in attitudes to food, smoking, exercise and working conditions. These changes did come about, eventually, but not until later in the 20th century when bold ideas such as mandating seatbelts and controls on cigarette advertising combined with advances in medicine to vastly improve our quality and quantity of life.

In the latter decades of last century, the women’s movement helped to create the novel concept of the two-income household. This created wealthier households and allowed more funds to be allocated to health and wellness, not to mention holidays in places such as Noosa and Bali.

Having more years tacked on to the end of the human lifespan changes the way time is used throughout the cycle. I wonder whether the next big social breakthrough will involve wider acceptance of equal childcare responsibilities, household chores and income generation? More income and more time for each party to pursue non-work, non-parental interests could well improve society’s overall mental and physical health. Modern thinking is that life is very much enhanced by access to income, leisure time and what is perceived to be a fairer distribution of adult responsibilities.

Perhaps the greatest change to the Australian way of life has been at each end of the working life. These days most young adults take more time gaining skills and training in the hope of finding work that is rewarding. On the other hand, older people are now far more likely to remain in the workforce for years beyond traditional retirement age. This provides funds (and taxes) for healthcare services and delivers the kind of social engagement that evades some people in traditional retirement.

A greater life expectancy isn’t just about medical advances, of course. It’s also delivered by social change. That can be mightily confronting at the time, but when measured over the longer term it is evident that social change can help deliver more years, better years, to the Australian way of life.