American dominance is being challenged – how will it affect us?

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New York Young Republican Club Gala on December 9. Picture: Michael M. Santiago

Is it possible for anyone to imagine a world 100 years hence? By recent experience we know that the pathway to the future is littered with entirely unforeseeable twists and turns.

One way to illustrate this is to place ourselves, as I often do, back in time to consider how the future might have been viewed versus how it actually unfolded.

A resident of Sydney in 1800 thinking about the year 1900 is unlikely to have considered the rise of Britain as a global superpower. It is more likely there would have been concern that a prospering colony might make for a juicy conquest by the French, who were active in the South Pacific. As it happened, Britain prevailed – and quite quickly, too, via the Battle of Waterloo in 1815. The colony of New South Wales prospered and helped establish other colonies across the Australian continent.

I wonder whether anyone from this early era was bold enough to consider unification of the Australian colonies?

Fast-forward and conduct the same exercise 100 years later: were there any big thinkers pondering what a united Australian nation might look like in the year 2000? Amid the glory of a then still rising Britain, surely the wild imaginings of colonials would have been about creating an even greater British Empire. And yet, by the middle of the century Britain was usurped by America as the prevailing world superpower. The British Empire was immediately weakened. Later, even the term “empire” was tarnished. Empire Day (May 24) is no longer commonly celebrated in Australia.

Yet even with these profound geopolitical changes, prosperity prevailed. We live longer. A middle class has evolved. We have social welfare funded by a progressive taxation system. We no longer toast the Queen/King (and the Pope at Catholic weddings).

So we come to today, almost a quarter of the way into the 21st century. At this time in previous centuries the pathway for the decades ahead had been established. America commanded the world’s biggest economy 100 years ago. By 1923 the thinking that would change the 20th century was already evident – the idea of a life in Downton Abbey-style “service” didn’t appeal to WWI returnees; they preferred factory work and self-determination.

It is a fair assessment to say that the era of American dominance is being challenged now – especially (maybe coincidentally) during the current US administration. It is also fair to say the thinking of the West has changed. There is more introspection, less self-assuredness or at least common agreement about the way forward. And yet America was challenged previously in the Cold War and emerged victorious. There have been times of dissent and change, and things settled down.

The question we now face is whether the turbulence of the times is a sign of a profound shift that could ultimately affect Australian freedoms and prosperity. Or whether this turbulence is a challenge to be absorbed and accommodated. I still have faith that ultimately what (we think) is right and good will prevail. Perhaps not without a fight, not without pain, not without fear and concern. However, I am sure that by the year 2100 the pathway through our century will be obvious in hindsight.