A population crash will change our world

Humanity has never previously been in a position of sustained, structural contraction. We must get used to the idea, and position ourselves to take advantage of it.

What will cities and house prices look like in a world in which there are fewer young people? Picture: istock

Data released by the UN recently provides an updated prediction of world population at the end of this century. The estimate is for a world population of 10.1 billion in 2100, down from a peak of 10.3 billion in 2084. The current population is 8.2 billion.

The data can be configured onto a chart tracking world population over 200 years, rising from less than two billion in 1900, cresting across peak humanity in the 2080s and then subsiding gently into the 2090s.

The frustrating thing about this outlook is that it doesn’t venture into the 22nd century. Will a decline in world population in the 22nd century mirror the world’s upward curve in the 21st century? Because if so, this contraction (caused by reduced fertility) would mean world population could fall to, say, six billion by 2200 and to even less in the 23rd century.

It’s all highly consequential. It means that the population crush caused by a further two billion people globally might be reached as today’s millennials pass into life’s later years. And it also means that for decades to come there is likely to be rising demand for Australian resources, commodities, energy and, most importantly, food.

Hopefully, in coming decades Australia will develop a series of global agribusinesses, more enterprises focused on renewables, and even greater capacity in logistics in order to meet global demand. But a large proportion of the net extra two billion people expected by 2084 will derive from humanity living longer. More people surviving into their seventies means productive output must be increasingly delivered by automation, mechanisation, robotics and AI. Imagine if Australia could dominate this technology in fields in which we already have a natural advantage, such as agribusiness, resources and commodities.

So Australia needs to gear up over the next six decades – growing, packaging and exporting much of what a bigger world wants. There may even be a period beyond peak humanity when our skills and resources continue to propel our interests forward on little more than the momentum of decades of growth.

But this outlook also means that Australia’s prospects in the 22nd century must eventually subside, in line with those of other resource-rich nations like the US and Canada. And what will cities and house prices look like in a world in which there are fewer young people? We don’t really know because humanity has never previously been in a position of sustained, structural contraction.

The new UN outlook suggests there will be rising demand for what Australia has to offer, effectively for the balance of the century. But next century we Australians, like the rest of the world, will have to learn how to live, form relationships, generate workplace value and find meaning in life within a world that is less busy and less youthful.

So what can we do now to better our chances of faring well in a shrinking world? Perhaps we can learn from societies going through the early stages of this process today, such as Japan. A culture of care, a commitment to social cohesion and development of global businesses are likely to help Australia thrive at a time when the rest of the world subsides.