Another thriller in Manila looming
History could be about to repeat itself in the Philippines
History could be about to repeat itself in the Philippines.
The son of the late (and notorious) Philippines dictator is set to become the next president.
On May 9 some 67.5 million Filipinos will head to the polls to elect a successor to current leader, Rodrigo Duterte, who has reached the end of a maximum six-year term and cannot - under the current constitution - run again.
But the frontrunner for the position, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos, is the son of the late president Ferdinand Marcos - a man with a record of heinous human rights violations.
Who was Ferdinand Marcos?
Marcos Snr was once a brilliant lawyer and descendent of a highly-esteemed Philippine political family. First elected president in 1965, he ran under the promise to make the Philippines “great again”.
Where have we heard that before?
His 20 year presidency is considered by thousands to be the darkest time in Philippine history.
Marcos Snr implemented a law in 1972 giving himself full, authoritarian power - also known as martial law.
The dictator told Amnesty International in 1975 that over 50,000 people had been arrested and detained since martial law had kicked in three years earlier.
Those arrested included church workers, human rights defenders, legal aid lawyers, labour leaders and journalists.
By the end of his presidency, at least 3240 people were killed, 34,000 tortured and 70,000 imprisoned.
Marcos Snr and his wife Imelda, a former beauty queen, became exceedingly wealthy by syphoning money from state funds and amassing billions of dollars in ill-earned wealth.
“The channels whereby the money was allegedly stolen were diverse, including the takeover of private companies; creation of monopolies for sugar, coconuts, shipping, construction and the media; fraudulent government loans; bribes from companies; and skimming off foreign loans and raiding the public treasury,” a 2007 World Bank Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative report read.
Imelda became famous for her 3000-strong shoe collection, and flaunted extravagant pieces of jewellery including a 70 carat light-blue diamond worth $7.6m.
She took on a number of beautification and vanity projects, such as the $25m Manila Film Centre, which was aimed at turning the Philippines into Asia’s movie capital and a rival to Cannes. The complex has since been abandoned; derelict and forgotten.
In 1983 opposition to Marcos Snr’s rule had begun to grow, and his health had started to fail.
Senator Benigno Aquino Jnr returned to the Philippines in the hopes of being an alternative leader, and defeating Marcos Snr in an upcoming election.
But he was shot dead as soon as he stepped off the plane.
Aquino’s assassination was perceived as the work of Marcos Snr's government, and led to mass protests.
A formidable political opponent emerged in Aquino’s widow, Corazon Aquino, who became the presidential candidate for the opposition. But through massive voter fraud, Marcos Snr still managed to clinch the win.
Eventually, Marcos and his family were driven into exile when parts of the Philippine military joined forces with Aquino’s supporters to run him out of town.
Fleeing to Hawaii, he took with him an estimated and unexplained wealth of $13.5bn, leaving behind a traumatised and impoverished country.
He died in Hawaii in 1989.
Which brings us to today
Thirty-six years after Marcos Snr was ousted, Filipinos are poised to elect his son to power.
Ten candidates are contesting the presidential elections though outgoing vice president Leni Robredo, whose campaign is characterised by hot pink t-shirts, hot pink buses and pink baked goods, is Marcos Jnr’s only real competitor.
She has mobilised an army of mostly young volunteers who have been swarming the streets of Manila and other cities in a wave of pink to try to energise supporters and persuade detractors.
But despite Robredo’s rallies of hundreds of thousands of people, and the support from Philippines' A-listers, she is still running - get this – 33% behind Marcos Jnr in the polls.
Rumours are rife that Marcos Jnr’s popularity has been bought by his deep-pocketed campaign, but Canberra University professor Nicole Curato says it is dangerous to buy into the gossip, given the wealth of misinformation circulating throughout the campaign.
“The reason people think the polls are wrong is if you look at Leni Robredo’s rallies the crowds are huge,” she said.
“All the A-list celebrities are rallying behind Leni Robredo while the has-beens are backing Marcos – very much like what happened in the 2016 Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton US presidential race.”
If Marcos Jnr is appointed to the Malacanang Palace he will likely bring Imelda with him.
“I’m sure my mom is watching on livestream. Let’s greet Imelda. Hello Imelda!” Marcos said, waving from the stage on April 9 during an event streamed live on Facebook, triggering applause and shouts from the crowd.
What Marcos is promising
With the Marcos dynasty being revived for another generation, Bong Bong has been campaigning hard in the likeness of his dad.
He's made himself a small target to avoid uncomfortable questions about the billions of dollars stolen and thousands of people tortured during his father's administration.
He's appealing to the millions of frustrated Filipinos who want to see more progress in the developing nation. These are the people who don't think their country has prospered since the bloodless coup in 1986.
Marcos Jr has been sticking to platitudes of how, under a government he leads, he'll "unite the country". An audacious throwback.
The Australian's Southeast Asia correspondent Amanda Hodge has been following the campaign closely, and says that allegations of disinformation by the Marcos campaign seem well founded given watchdog groups have found hundreds of examples online including dangerous allegations that Robredo is in cahoots with communist insurgents.
Such allegations, known as ‘red tagging’ in The Philippines, have led to many extra judicial killings over the years, Hodge said.
"But, it's also true that the Marcos campaign has tapped into a huge pool of frustration among Filipinos who believe their country has stalled under a succession of pocket lining administrations since the 1986 revolution, and watched as neighbouring countries have leaped ahead of them."
"Robredo has also left her run too late. She seemed like a reluctant candidate for a long time and it’s only in the past month or so _ as the polls continued to show that alarming gap between her and Marcos _ that her volunteers have really stepped on the gas with a really energetic campaign that, if started earlier, could have made a difference."
And Robredo's platforms are
Covered in more hot pink than a Mattel factory, Robredo has managed to mobilise a campaign stacked with an energetic bunch of young supporters and masses of passionate volunteers.
Robredo has promised to revive the Philippines’ pandemic struck economy through responsible, clean government and pay more attention to the needs of the vast ranks of the country’s poor.
It’s a solid story but one that seems to be struggling to compete with the apparent glamour, mythology and allure of the Marcos clan, including rumours that the family have simply been waiting for a return to power in order to distribute the billions of dollars in plundered state funds.
Can Robredo beat the odds? Will Marcos pull out the wallet for the poor?
If the current poll numbers – determined from limited surveys of just over 2000 people - are correct, then Marcos will be the first majority president in the post revolution era.
"There is considerable scepticism that Marcos can pull off such a huge victory," Hodge said.
"A lot of analysts are comparing the relatively muted support for Marcos on the streets to the craziness of the 2016 pre-poll Duterte fever.
"At the very least, many believe it will be a far closer contest than the polls suggest."
All will be determined on May 9.
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